October 13th report:
Currently, the short, medium, and long-term cycle differentials of styrene-butadiene rubber in China have all risen, indicating a clear trend of price increases. However, with prices already at a high level for nearly 1 year and the expectation of weakening external demand from downstream sectors, the room for further price increases is limited. It is more likely that the market will consolidate at these high levels.
Note: The most recent data available as of October 12, 2026, is provided; we recommend relying on real-time data.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Difference Type | Value on October 12, 2026 | Value on October 11, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 183.33 | 115.00 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 237.50 | 171.66 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 304.17 | 301.67 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current situation is a clear signal of an increase.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The trend is clearly upward, for the following reason: the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages all exhibit the same directional change as the previous day—each has risen positively—thus satisfying the criteria for a clear upward trend under the moving-average method.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Butadiene rubber 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 5th tier (high position). According to the 5-tier classification rule, the current price is in the highest 20% range within the cycle, indicating limited room for further increases.
V. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VI. Industry Fundamentals Reference
Spot market conditions: On October 12, the SBR market in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions of China was consolidating at high levels. The mainstream prices for Fushun, Lanhua, Yangzi, and Jihua 1502 were reported at 168,000 to 170,000 CNY per ton. International crude oil prices were fluctuating at high levels, supporting the cost end. Downstream inquiries were mainly based on demand, with resistance to high-priced supplies, and traders' offers were within a range.
Industry chain overview: Upstream core raw materials include butadiene, styrene, n-hexane, and others; downstream applications are primarily in tires, automotive components, rubber hoses and tapes, rubber gloves, and related fields.
Demand-side data: In the first nine months of 2026, U.S. electric vehicle sales fell 30.7% year over year, while imports of tires into the U.S. declined 4% in the first eight months. Weaker external demand may exert downward pressure on medium-term demand.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
