Polyester bottle chip prices first fell then rebounded in February, weakening again at the end of the month in China

February 28 news

As of February 28, according to price data, the mainstream average price of polyester bottle chip in East China was 6,322 CNY per ton.

I. Price Trends

Overall: Prices initially fell and then rebounded, only to weaken again at month-end; the monthly average price was 6,230 CNY/ton, up 1.27% from the previous month.

Phase division

•Early of the month (Feb. 1–Feb. 5): Following the post-holiday pullback in raw material prices and weakening cost support, futures prices fluctuated downward; spot prices fell from 6,324 CNY/ton to 6,068 CNY/ton (a single-day drop of 256 yuan on Feb. 2).

•Mid-month (Feb. 6–Feb. 23): Raw materials PTA and MEG rebounded amid volatile market conditions, driving up costs; futures prices staged a rebound, and spot prices gradually recovered to a range of 6,100–6,270 CNY/ton.

• End of the month (Feb. 24–27): After initially surging and then falling back, the downward trend intensified. On Feb. 24, futures prices rose by 136 yuan to 6,266 CNY/ton; however, subsequently, crude oil prices weakened, and downstream industries resumed work less than expected, causing spot prices to decline from 6,330 to 6,450 CNY/ton.

II. Core Market Analysis

1. Cost side (dominant factor)

• Crude oil under pressure: Expectations of increased OPEC production and falling oil prices are directly weighing on PTA/MEG.

• Raw material weakness: PTA/MEG prices decline, cost support for bottle chips weakens, and factory profits contract.

• Conduction Path: Crude Oil → PX → PTA/MEG → Bottle Chip, with a significant short-term cost transmission downward.

2. Supply side

• Capacity utilization rate: Approximately 66% on a monthly average, with tight supply due to some plant maintenance activities (e.g., China Resources Jiangyin, Sanfangxiang, etc.).

• Inventory: Low factory inventories in China provide limited support to prices.

• New capacity: Growth will slow down in 2026 (around 6.25%), and supply-demand balance will tighten in the medium term.

3. Demand side (the biggest drag)

• Slow resumption of work: The resumption rate for downstream sectors such as soft drinks and edible oils is only 50%-60%, lower than the same period in previous years.

• Cautious purchasing: The downstream sector in China is mainly focused on digesting pre-holiday inventories, with few new orders and only small replenishments for essential needs.

• Production and sales are sluggish: On February 27, the production and sales of bottle chips in China were only 30% (far below the 70% break-even line), putting great pressure on factories to ship goods.

• Peak season expectations: The traditional peak season in mid-to-late March, but there are no clear order signals in the short term.

4. Futures and Market Sentiment

•Futures lead the decline in spot prices, basis weakens, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong.

• The bid-ask spread widened (50-100 CNY/ton), with most transactions at lower prices.

III. Future Market Forecast (Early March)

• Trend judgment: Weak consolidation, unlikely to see a significant rebound.

• Core focus:

◦ Crude oil and PTA/MEG price trends

◦Progress of downstream resumption (may see a turning point after the Lantern Festival)

◦ Bottle flake production, sales, and inventory depletion rate

• Risk factors: Continued decline in crude oil prices, slower-than-expected resumption of downstream operations, and further weakening of futures contracts.