Ample Supply, Toluene Market Declines in China

February 9 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 2 to February 9, 2026, the Chinese toluene market slightly decreased, with prices dropping from 5,560 CNY/ton to 5,410 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.7%. During this period, the market showed a decline from its high position, with weakened cost support, a more relaxed supply situation, the end of pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream buyers, and a cooling of the speculative buying sentiment all contributing to the price decline. The pressure to maintain high and stable prices increased, and the overall market trend was weak within a certain range.

Cost Perspective: According to the commodity market analysis system, during this period, international crude oil prices experienced volatile declines, geopolitical premiums gradually faded, and market expectations for demand turned cautious. Coupled with the impact of certain macroeconomic data, the center of gravity for oil prices shifted slightly downward, leading to a temporary weakening of cost support in the toluene market. Chinese crude oil futures followed the external market fluctuations in tandem; the previous strong support levels have begun to lose their effectiveness, causing market sentiment to turn more cautious. Naphtha prices also remained relatively weak, and the overall cost dynamics of the aromatics industry lacked sufficient upward momentum. As a result, the toluene market lacks sustained upward impetus from the cost side. Moreover, as market expectations for continued oil price volatility intensify, the bullish sentiment in the toluene market has been noticeably dampened, creating room for price corrections. As of February 6, the settlement price for the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $63.55 per barrel, while the settlement price for the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.05 per barrel.

Supply side:

During this period, China’s toluene supply has been generally tight, with significant regional disparities driven by differences in plant operations and cargo arrivals, serving as the key support for rising prices. In Shandong, the supply-demand balance remains tight, providing the strongest impetus for price increases. Xinyue Chemical’s plant restart has been delayed, YouTai Technology has halted operations for maintenance, Huaxing Petrochemical’s toluene is primarily used internally, and Yulong Petrochemical’s regional circulation volume has declined, leading to a continuous contraction of available supplies. Refineries’ premium bidding has become commonplace, prompting sellers to actively push up quotes, and prices have surged above the 5,000 CNY/ton mark, with trading activity remaining robust. In Jiangsu, the decline in ship cargoes arriving at storage areas has tightened spot supply; coupled with the positive impact of rising crude oil and aromatics prices, holders are aggressively maintaining high prices. Paper-market transactions have become frequent, and the opening of arbitrage windows for exports has further reinforced sellers’ reluctance to sell, causing prices to follow Shandong’s upward trend. In Guangdong, the market has shown a “tight-first, then loose” pattern: earlier delays in ship cargoes led to inventory depletion and price hikes, while the subsequent steady arrival of cargoes has put downward pressure on prices. Moreover, China’s major refineries maintain stable operating rates but tend to use more of their output internally.

Sinopec's toluene production is operating normally, with stable production. Most of the products are for internal use, and the production and sales are balanced. As of February 9th, the East China company's quotation is 5,500 CNY/ton, the North China company's quotation is 5,400 CNY/ton, the South China company's quotation is 5,500 CNY/ton, and the Central China company's quotation is 5,350 CNY/ton.