Cost support weakens, polyester staple fiber prices slightly decline

April 14th, news:

Commodity market analysis system, in the past week, the Chinese polyester staple fiber market has seen a slight decline. As of April 14, the average market price for Chinese polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 8,072 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from April 7.

The cost side remains the core driving factor. Volatility in crude oil prices directly affects market sentiment. On April 8, the international crude oil market experienced an epic plunge: both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell below the round psychological level of $100 per barrel. WTI’s daily price decline exceeded 16% in a single day. The primary drivers were the temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the rapid restoration of expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the unexpected build-up of U.S. crude oil inventories. As a result, the market focused on unwinding the premium previously paid for geopolitical risks, causing both crude oil and refined product futures to plummet simultaneously. Currently, prices have rebounded slightly after the initial correction.

The Chinese PTA market followed the decline in crude oil, with prices quickly retreating. As of April 14, the spot price of PTA in the East China region was 6,392 CNY/ton, a 7.79% decrease from a week earlier. However, as the industry entered the spring maintenance phase in April, leading enterprises' facilities gradually shut down, and the operating rate of the industry fell to around 80%. Large-scale maintenance of PTA facilities in China is expected to reduce supply, making the supply side relatively strong. Inventory is entering a destocking channel, and the tight supply of raw materials in April is expected to continue. Some facilities may still undergo unplanned maintenance, and the tight circulation of spot goods will provide support for prices. Additionally, with no new PTA capacity added throughout the year, the long-term pressure of oversupply has been eliminated.

On the demand side, performance remains weak. Currently, the textile industry is in its traditional off-season, with insufficient foreign trade orders. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, weaving mills continue to operate at low capacity utilization rates, creating a significant negative feedback loop on high-priced raw materials and thereby limiting the room for price increases. Downstream yarn mills are adopting a cautious approach to procurement, accumulating inventories and stocking up only when absolutely necessary, driven primarily by immediate demand. It is expected that from May to June, the industry will gradually enter the traditional peak consumption season, potentially triggering a surge in restocking demand. However, if raw material prices remain persistently high, purchasing intentions could still be restrained, leaving the extent of demand improvement uncertain.

Looking at the future market, according to SpotCom, the current 10-day moving average of polyester staple fiber has crossed below the 20-day moving average, indicating a downward trend.

Moreover, from a positioning perspective, prices have been at medium to low levels over the past 30 days, but have remained at medium to high levels over the past year, suggesting that a downward trend in polyester staple fiber prices may be taking shape. It remains crucial to closely monitor cost trends and the recovery of downstream demand during the peak season.