DMF Primarily in Oscillating Mode; Upside Potential Limited

March 24th, according to news,

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system: As of March 24, the average quotation for premium DMF from Chinese enterprises is 5,440 CNY/ton. Currently, the overall DMF market is stable with a slightly strong trend. After a significant price increase in mid-March, this week has entered a period of stable prices and observation, with manufacturers holding firm on prices and downstream buyers being cautious in their purchases.

II. Cause Analysis

Market Perspective: The sharp surge in the price of raw material methanol, which has driven up costs, is the primary driver behind this round of price increases. Supply and demand remain tight, with some plants undergoing maintenance or reducing output, resulting in low inventory levels. Downstream users are replenishing their inventories out of necessity, though high prices are curbing speculative purchases. Recently, the Chinese DMF market has been operating at relatively strong price levels, with mainstream quotations ranging from 5,150 to 5,700 CNY per ton—a significant increase compared to the beginning of the year. Influenced by the interplay between supply and demand, the market has shown a phased rebound following a period of low-level, narrow-range fluctuations. Starting from an average price of 3,940 CNY per ton at the end of February 2026, DMF prices have continued to rise, with price increases exceeding 36%. This round of price hikes is primarily fueled by companies’ willingness to hold prices steady, cost support, and short-term export orders.

Supply Side: China's total capacity remains at 1.77 million tons/year (2025 data), with the industry operating at a low rate of around 40% for a long time, and the situation of severe overcapacity has not changed. There is no new capacity added from 2025 to 2026, and many expansion projects have been put on hold, which has alleviated further downward pressure.

Demand Side: The downstream sectors driving demand include polyurethane dispersions (accounting for over 50%), electronics, pharmaceuticals, and others. Currently, domestic demand remains sluggish, with downstream buyers mostly “replenishing stock on an as-needed basis.” However, robust exports have become a key support—export volume in 2025 increased by 26.10% year-on-year, with major destinations being South Korea, Japan, and India.

III. Future Market Forecast

DMF analysts believe: The DMF market will continue to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern, with limited upside potential, and the overall market will operate in a balanced supply and demand situation.