Multiple Factors Interwoven, Short-Term Fluctuations in Polyethylene

May 15 News: Curve Comparison Chart

According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on May 8 was 8,450 CNY/ton, and the average price on May 14 was 8,475 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.30%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on May 8 was 11,566 CNY/ton, and the average price on May 14 was 11,366 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.73%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on May 8 was 10,275 CNY/ton, and the average price on May 14 was 10,320 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.44%.

The overall polyethylene supply is showing a structurally differentiated pattern, with a generally easing trend taking shape. Earlier, multiple plant maintenance activities led to temporary supply reductions, resulting in localized tightness in certain supply sources. Recently, as maintenance units have resumed production in concentrated fashion, industry operating rates have steadily rebounded, and the overall supply volume continues to increase.

Polyethylene demand is generally weak and is currently in the traditional low season. The peak season for agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has significantly declined, dragging down overall demand. Demand in the rigid sectors such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials is stable but weak, with downstream users generally purchasing on an as-needed basis and showing little willingness to replenish inventories. The recovery in real estate and consumer spending in China has fallen short of expectations, leading to fewer terminal orders and a low acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Overall, demand provides limited support for prices, and the weak trend during the low season is unlikely to change in the short term.

The cost side as a whole shows a pattern of "high-level loosening and bottom support through fluctuation." As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, crude oil prices have fallen from their highs, further dragging down the cost base. The cost of coal-based production remains relatively stable, with decent profits, providing some cushion at the bottom for prices. Overall, the cost-driven momentum has weakened, making it difficult to exert strong upward pressure; instead, it mainly serves to provide support within a range of fluctuations.

After the maintenance, supply continues to increase, and the off-season for demand persists. The high cost of crude oil at the cost end has become less firm, providing only bottom support. Overall, it is easier for the price center to fall than to rise, with short-term range-bound fluctuations and a downward pressure in the medium term.