October 16th, news
On October 15, 2026, the spot price of butadiene rubber in China continued to decline. The factory prices of manufacturers such as PetroChina Northeast cumulatively decreased by 600 CNY per ton on the 14th and 15th. Downstream buyers showed a clear resistance to high-priced goods, with light inquiries. Based on the average difference method indicator, it is judged that butadiene rubber has triggered a downward signal, with its price in the mid-high range in recent years, leaving limited room for increase. However, the high volatility of international crude oil prices provides support to the raw material prices of butadiene rubber. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is characterized by high-level and wide-range fluctuations.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Type | Today’s Value (CNY/ton) | Yesterday’s Value (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -348.00 | +12.00 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | +113.00 | +198.00 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | +287.50 | +311.00 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviations are all negative compared to the previous day, which is a clear signal of a decline.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend for butadiene rubber in China is clearly declining.
Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are all negative, indicating a consistent downward trend. This meets the criteria for a clear downtrend according to the moving average difference method.
Fundamental support: On October 14 and 15, the Northeast Sales Company of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) cumulatively reduced the factory price of butadiene by 600 CNY/ton. Spot offers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also declined. Downstream buyers showed strong resistance to high-priced goods, with light inquiries and weak demand leading to a short-term price decline. Only the high and volatile cost of crude oil provided some support.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Butadiene rubber prices are in the high range (5th tier) for 60-day and 3-month cycles, and in the mid-high range (4th tier) for the 1-year cycle. The current price has limited room for increase and some room for a short-term decline.
Five, the trend chart of the past 1 year in China
Six, Risk Warning
The latest available data is up to October 15, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
