October 14th, news
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Difference Type | Value on 2026.10.13 | Value on 2026.10.12 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 4.00 | 73.00 | - |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 211.25 | 201.00 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 176.50 | 165.25 | + |
2. Signal status determination
Strong consolidation (bullish)
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy but tilted to the upside. Reason: The three moving-average divergences changed in the following directions compared with the previous day—down, up, and up—respectively. Since these directional changes are not fully aligned, they do not meet the criteria for a clear bullish or bearish signal; hence, the market is classified as ranging. Notably, the 10-day and 20-day moving-average divergences continue to rise, indicating strong medium-term support and an overall bullish bias.
4. Position Space Reference
Phenol 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are both in the 5th tier (the highest 20% range within the cycle, high position), while the 1-year cycle price is in the 4th tier (60%-80% range within the cycle, mid-high position). The short-term upside potential is limited, and at the same time, due to upstream cost support and medium-term moving average support, the downside potential is also relatively narrowed. The overall fluctuation range is expected to narrow.
5. Supplement the industrial chain dimension analysis
upstream cost support
Phenol's core upstream raw materials are benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and propylene. Currently, the prices of these three types of raw materials are in the higher range over the past three months. The cost side provides strong support for phenol prices, and there is no significant negative driver for cost collapse. The downward space for phenol prices is noticeably compressed.
Downstream demand performance
Phenol downstream demand is concentrated in categories such as bisphenol A, phenolic resins, and salicylic acid. Currently, the operating rates of the main downstream industries in China are maintained at a normal level of 55%-65%. Rigid demand procurement is stable, and there have been no large-scale production halts or order cancellations, so there is no significant negative impact on the demand side. However, downstream manufacturers have a low acceptance of the current high phenol prices, with weak inventory replenishment intentions and insufficient demand to chase higher prices. Therefore, it is difficult to support a significant increase in phenol prices.
Supply and Demand Landscape Summary
The current supply and demand for phenol in China is in a tight balance, with strong cost support but insufficient demand. This corresponds to the judgment that there will be a short-term fluctuation with a slight upward trend, but it is unlikely to see a one-sided significant increase.
6. Trend chart display
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
