China's Natural Rubber Market Prices Fluctuate and Rise

April 8th News

Since 2026, the natural rubber market has experienced fluctuating increases, with prices steadily rising compared to 2025. As of April 7, the spot price of natural rubber in China's market is around 16,933 CNY/ton, an increase of 10.37% from 15,341 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year.

In January and February, overseas rubber tapping was hampered by adverse weather conditions, and coupled with China’s tapping suspension period, the prices of natural rubber raw materials outside China remained at high levels, providing cost support for natural rubber. Meanwhile, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream tire manufacturers saw a decline in their operating rates, leading to a slower pace of raw material consumption. Additionally, a concentrated arrival of imported shipments further exacerbated the situation. As of March 29, 2026, China’s social inventory of natural rubber stood at 1.35 million tons, exerting downward pressure on natural rubber prices. Under the combined influence of these factors, natural rubber prices experienced volatile but slight upward movements.

After the Spring Festival, the downstream tire production significantly increased, with natural rubber supported by rigid demand. As of the week of April 3, the semi-steel tire operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises was 78%; the all-steel tire operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises was 72%. Starting from late March, Yunnan and Hainan production areas began trial tapping earlier, but the overall increase in new rubber supply was limited, leading to a situation where rigid demand first caused a drop in rubber prices before they rose.

On the supply side, global production growth is constrained. According to ANRPC data, global natural rubber production in 2026 is expected to reach 15.2 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year. However, Thailand and Indonesia are facing sluggish production growth due to aging rubber trees, disease outbreaks, and labor shortages. On the demand side, the global automotive and tire industries are experiencing a moderate recovery. China’s new-energy vehicle policies and the car-for-trade-in program are boosting tire consumption. Global consumption is projected to reach 15.6 million tons, leaving a supply-demand gap of approximately 400,000 tons. This persistent supply shortage—lasting for six consecutive years—continues to serve as a key support for rubber prices.

Market Forecast: As shown in the spot price and moving average charts, since 2026, the natural rubber spot price curve has remained above the 30-day and 60-day moving averages until mid-March. Only starting on March 16 did the spot price begin to gradually fall below the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day curves; however, after briefly dipping below these curves, the spot price once again gradually returned above them. Considering both the spot price trend and the moving average patterns, in the short term, natural rubber prices may experience minor adjustments due to factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weather conditions. In the medium term, over the next one to two months, the overall market trend for natural rubber is expected to remain upward, with strong support from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. Looking ahead to the long term, the natural rubber market in 2026 is in an upward cycle phase, with a generally volatile yet bullish price trajectory throughout the year and a significantly higher price center compared to 2025.