Energy and Chemical Futures Plunge Across the Board; PET Shows Resilience Against Declines

April 8th News

According to comprehensive reports from authoritative media outlets including CCTV, on April 7 local time, U.S. President Trump announced that, at the request of the Pakistani side, he had agreed to suspend bombing and military strikes against Iran for a period of two weeks. The PET bottle flake market is currently undergoing a price reassessment driven by emotional contagion rather than a simple cost-driven adjustment.

I. Oil Prices Plunge

Spurred by news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, energy and chemical futures plunged across the board, marking the largest single-day price decline so far this year. As of early morning on August 8, Beijing time, the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract plummeted more than 19% during trading, falling below the $100 per barrel mark and hitting a low of $91.3 per barrel—a record for the largest single-day price decline since April 2020. Brent crude oil futures fell by roughly 13% to 17%, dropping below $92 per barrel for the first time since late March.

Polyester chain PTA (TA): 6574 CNY/ton, down 7.88%, ethylene glycol (EG): 5357 CNY/ton, down 8.61%, short fiber (PF): 8182 CNY/ton, down 5.93%, bottle chip (PR): 8156 CNY/ton, down 7.83%.

The core reason behind the across-the-board plunge in energy and chemical futures

1. Geopolitical risks recede: The U.S.-Iran ceasefire leads to the disappearance of the geopolitical premium on crude oil.

2. Supply and Demand Headwinds: U.S. crude oil inventories surged by 12.9 million barrels, and OPEC+ plans to phase out its production cuts.

3. Capital Stampede: Early long positions were concentratedly liquidated, triggering a widespread trading halt across the chemical products sector.

II. PET Market: Price declines were significantly smaller than those of raw materials, once again highlighting its resilience against downturns.

Dragged down by the sharp decline in crude oil and polyester raw material prices, PET bottle flake prices are also under downward pressure. As of the morning of April 8, spot quotes for polyester bottle flakes in the East China region ranged from 8,380 to 8,600 CNY per ton, a significant drop compared to the previous trading day.

However, the low inventory levels in the market provide a strong buffer for prices. Currently, the inventory of bottle chip manufacturers in China is only about 10 days, and the tight supply means that holders do not have the pressure to reduce prices to clear inventory. Even if there is some easing on the cost side, the room for voluntary price reductions remains limited.

The supply side is also showing a structural contraction trend: China’s PET plant capacity utilization rate has remained at 72%, lower than the level observed during the same period in previous years. Coupled with the ongoing impact of the force majeure event involving Indorama, the world’s leading PET producer, the overall supply side remains strongly supported.

On the demand side, there is solid support. Currently, we are in April—the traditional peak season for consumption—and the operating rates in downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils remain at 70% to 80%. The steady release of rigid demand procurement continues to provide effective floor support for bottle flake prices.

In summary, the combined effect of low inventory levels, shrinking supply, and robust underlying demand has enabled PET prices to demonstrate significantly greater resilience against the recent sharp decline in raw material prices compared to upstream markets.

III. Future Market Forecast

Short term (1–2 weeks): Spot-futures correction, high-level volatility.

Key judgment: Spot market is strong, while the futures market is weak; prices will stabilize first and then rebound, making a deep decline unlikely.

• Spot (East China bottle grade)

◦Range: 8,500–8,800 CNY/ton