September 4th, news from China
Currently, natural rubber spot prices are in a phase of fluctuation and consolidation. The average difference signal indicates a weak rebound (bearish) state. The 1-year cycle price is at a high level, with limited room for further increases. Coupled with the tight balance of supply and demand providing support, it is likely to maintain a pattern of fluctuating operations in the short term.
Data note: The latest available data is up to September 3, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of September 3, 2026 | Value as of September 2, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -30.00 | -95.00 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 95.00 | 125.83 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 287.09 | 305.84 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current deviation change combination is (+, -, -), corresponding to a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating. The reason for this judgment is that the direction of change in the three averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market. The bearish attribute indicates insufficient short-term upward momentum.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The one-year price cycle for natural rubber is in the 5th tier (high range), with limited room for further increases and a higher downside risk than upside potential.
V. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VI. Fundamental Reference
Spot market: On September 3, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao area showed fluctuating consolidation. The Shanghai rubber futures were in a range-bound consolidation, and spot traders made minor adjustments to their offers. The mainstream price for Yunnan Bao / Guangken / Haibao of 2024 was 17,800~18,000 CNY/ton; for 2025, it was 18,000~18,200 CNY/ton; and for Vietnam 3L, it was 18,650~18,800 CNY/ton.
Raw Materials: On September 2, natural rubber raw material prices in Thailand saw a slight increase. Smoke sheet was quoted at 85.75 Thai baht per kilogram, up 0.25 Thai baht per kilogram; latex was quoted at 78.50 Thai baht per kilogram, up 0.50 Thai baht per kilogram; cup lump was quoted at 72.00 Thai baht per kilogram, up 0.50 Thai baht per kilogram. The relatively strong raw material prices provided some support to the spot market.
On the supply and demand side: According to the latest July 2026 report released by ANRPC, global natural rubber production fell by 5.2% in July to 1.321 million tons, while consumption rose by 0.8% to 1.297 million tons, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
