August 18th, news:
I. Price Trends
According to the data monitoring system, on August 18, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region of China was 9,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 775 CNY/ton compared to August 10 (when the cyclohexanone reference price was 8,425 CNY/ton), a price increase of 9.20%.
In early August, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong showed a continuous downward trend, with insufficient support for favorable conditions in the cyclohexanone market. The market prices continued to move towards lower levels, with the lowest prices falling to around 8,450 CNY/ton. By mid-August, as the cost of raw materials continued to rise, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong began to rebound from its low point. The cyclohexanone prices adjusted upward continuously. As of August 18, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong had increased by about 700-800 CNY/ton, with market prices ranging from 9,150 to 9,250 CNY/ton.
II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Cost-wise: Recently, the market price of pure benzene, a raw material for cyclohexanone, has risen to a high level, continuously strengthening the cost support for cyclohexanone. The market trend for cyclohexanone is moving upward, driven by the raw material.
Supply and Demand: Currently, the supply of cyclohexanone in China is stable, with a steady pace of spot shipments. The downstream sector of cyclohexanone mainly follows a procurement strategy based on demand, and the market's supply and demand transmission is satisfactory.
III. Future Market Forecast
Currently, the Shandong cyclohexanone market is seeing moderate inquiry activity and strong cost support. It is expected that, in the short term, the Shandong cyclohexanone market will mostly remain stable with a slight upward trend. Further attention should be paid to developments on both the supply-demand side and cost factors.
From a technical perspective analysis
From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that starting from August 17, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone began to cross above the 20-day moving average, and the upward difference is showing a trend of expansion, indicating a predicted upward trend in the future. The auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at a medium-high level among the five levels (annual position). Combining these two indicators, it is predicted that the future market price of cyclohexanone will have limited upward potential, mainly characterized by strong performance at high levels. It is also necessary to closely monitor fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.
