June 18th News Curve Comparison Chart
According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on June 12 was 8,301 CNY/ton, and the average price on June 17 was 7,941 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.34%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on June 12 was 10,116 CNY/ton, and the average price on June 17 was 9,766 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.46%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 12 was 10,200 CNY/ton, and the average price on June 17 was 10,125 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.74%.
Recently, the international crude oil geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has subsided, leading to a fluctuating decline in oil prices. The center of raw material costs has shifted downward, dragging down the polyethylene market in China.
Maintenance benefits are gradually fading, and the supply of goods is becoming more relaxed. Multiple polyethylene plants in China resumed production in mid-June. With the recovery of shipping from the Middle East, the volume of imported LDPE arriving at Chinese ports has increased, leading to an oversupply of high-pressure materials, which is the core reason for the significant decrease in LDPE prices. Yangzi Petrochemical's long-term shutdown for maintenance has led to a temporary shortage of low-pressure materials in the East China region, making local spot prices more resilient.
Agricultural film off-season: The demand for mulch and greenhouse films has completely ended, and the production of agricultural films has fallen to the lowest level of the year. The production of packaging films, injection molding, hollow, and coating has declined, with finished goods inventory piling up. All downstream factories are purchasing according to their needs, with no advance stockpiling. Traders are actively reducing prices to clear inventory, which further exacerbates the decline in prices.
With continued ample supply and the drag from the off-season in downstream markets, polyethylene as a whole is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. After a sharp drop, it may experience a small, narrow-range rebound, but the room for an upward recovery remains limited.
