Cost-Driven Stronger Rise in Phosphate Market in May

May 29th News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, on May 29, the reference average price of 85% thermal process phosphoric acid in China was 10,375 CNY/ton, compared to the reference average price of 8,400 CNY/ton for 85% thermal process phosphoric acid in China on May 1. This month, the market price of thermal process phosphoric acid in China increased by 23.51%.

According to the commodity market analysis system, on May 29th, the reference average price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 11,025 CNY per ton. Compared to the reference average price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China on May 1st, which was 8,800 CNY per ton, the price of wet-process phosphoric acid in China increased by 25.28% this month.

II. Market Analysis

Market Conditions

This month, the Chinese phosphoric acid market saw a significant increase. The prices of raw materials, such as yellow phosphorus and sulfur, strengthened, leading to increased cost support. The phosphoric acid market followed the trend of the raw material prices. As of May 29, the price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China was around 10,000 to 11,200 CNY per ton, and the price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was around 10,550 to 11,500 CNY per ton.

Cost aspect

Yellow phosphorus market conditions. This month, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market has been relatively tight, leading to increased trading activity and stronger transaction prices. Manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell. Sulfur market conditions. This month, sulfur supplies have become tight, driving up the prices of wet-process purified acid. In the short term, phosphate raw material prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels.

III. Future Market Forecast

Phosphate analysts believe that the market price trend of phosphoric acid has been on the rise recently. Due to the shortage of raw material resources and cost support, the phosphoric acid market has shown a strong increase. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market in China will mainly operate with a strong trend.

4. Technical Analysis

From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that the current 10-day moving average of phosphoric acid is running above the 20-day moving average, and the market trend prediction is in line with an upward trend.

Auxiliary indicators show that the current price of phosphoric acid is at the upper end of the five-tier pricing range. Although the forecast suggests a continued upward trend in phosphoric acid prices, the magnitude of the price increase is expected to be limited. Therefore, we recommend adopting a cautious approach.