June 12th, News
Since 2026, the overall focus of the natural rubber market in China has steadily shifted upward, with the trend showing a "weak reality, strong expectation" bargaining pattern. As of June 12, the price of natural rubber is 17,566 CNY/ton, up 14.50% for the year and 30.53% year-on-year. The current supply and demand structure continues to optimize, coupled with favorable weather cycles, suggesting that rubber prices still have upward momentum. However, in the short term, prices will mainly consolidate at high levels.
Recently, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed the existence of the El Niño phenomenon. According to NOAA’s announcement, there is a 63% probability that this phenomenon will intensify sharply from late autumn to early winter this year. The risk of severe drought is particularly prominent, and the market expects this to dampen rubber tapping efficiency in Southeast Asian producing regions, providing strong speculative and fundamental support for rubber prices in the second half of the year. Currently, raw material prices in Thailand remain persistently high, with tight supply in the market. As of June 12, Thai natural rubber sheet prices stood at 95.00 Thai baht per kilogram, up 38.69% year-on-year; latex prices reached 88.50 Thai baht per kilogram, an increase of 55.95% over the same period last year; and cup lump prices were at 74.80 Thai baht per kilogram, up 34.77% year-on-year.
Demand remains resilient, and substitution effects provide favorable support. Chinese tire manufacturers maintain stable operations, while the high prices of synthetic rubber compress the price difference between the two, prompting downstream companies to increase the use of natural rubber, further boosting the consumption of natural rubber. As of June 10, the operating rate of semi-steel tires in Chinese tire enterprises is around 70%; in Shandong, the operating rate of all-steel tires in tire enterprises is about 68%.
Inventory levels saw a slight increase, which will have a somewhat bearish impact on the natural rubber market in the short term. As of June 7, 2026, the total inventory volume of natural rubber in the Qingdao area—comprising both bonded and general trade inventories—stood at 696,800 tons, up 0.88% from the previous month.
Future Market Forecast:
From a technical perspective: 1. The price position indicators show that the current 10/20/30-day positions are all at low levels, and a "10-day oversold" signal was triggered on June 8th, indicating a clear short-term weakness; however, the 60/90-day positions are still at medium to high levels, and the annual position is at a high level, suggesting that the medium-term uptrend has not completely deteriorated. 2. The moving average indicators show that the current price has fallen below the 10-day moving average and is approaching the 20-day moving average, with the short-term moving averages turning downward and forming pressure, while the medium-term moving averages are still trending upward.
From a fundamental perspective, from June to July, Southeast Asian producing regions will enter their traditional peak production season, with a concentrated influx of new rubber supply boosting overall supply. Coupled with the seasonal lull in the tire industry, the pace of rubber price increases has slowed down, and prices are likely to remain in a wide trading range in the short term. In the medium to long term, as the impact of El Niño gradually materializes from August to December and the production-cutting effect takes hold, rubber prices are expected to break through previous highs. The tight balance between supply and demand is set to persist in the long run, making it easier for rubber prices to rise than to fall, with the price center of gravity continuing to move upward.
