September 1st News
Natural rubber is currently in a resilient warning state under a fluctuating pattern, with bullish attributes becoming prominent. However, the price is already in the highest range of nearly 1 year, and the upside potential is limited. It is necessary to be cautious of the risk of high-level volatility.
Data Benchmark Explanation
The latest available data for natural rubber in China is up to August 31, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of 2026.08.31 (CNY/ton) | Value as of 2026.08.30 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 93.33 | 101.66 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 153.33 | 113.34 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 327.92 | 340.00 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change symbol combination is (－, ＋, －), which belongs to the resilience warning (bullish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is determined to be oscillating. Reason: The change in the difference between the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market. Additionally, there is a resilient warning signal with a bullish bias, indicating strong short-term support against price declines.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Natural rubber prices over the past 60 days, 3 months, and 1 year in China are all in the 5th tier (high, corresponding to the top 20% price range within the respective periods). The upside potential is limited, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback from these high levels.
Five, Display of Trend Charts
VI. Fundamental Reference Information
Spot market: On August 31, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao region continued to rise. The increase in Shanghai rubber futures led to an upward adjustment in the quotes from spot traders. The mainstream prices for 2024 Yunnan Bao/ Guangken/ Haibao were 17950~18200 CNY/ton; for 2025 Yunnan Bao/ Guangken/ Haibao, the mainstream prices were 18150~18350 CNY/ton; and for Vietnamese 3L, the mainstream prices were 18800~18950 CNY/ton.
Production Area Update: On August 31, natural rubber raw materials in Thailand showed stable-to-slight increases. Smoke sheet prices remained unchanged at 85.50 Thai baht per kilogram, while latex prices rose by 0.30 Thai baht per kilogram to 78.00 Thai baht per kilogram, and cup lump prices increased by 0.20 Thai baht per kilogram to 71.15 Thai baht per kilogram.
At the import and export end: In the first seven months of 2026, Thailand’s exports of natural rubber (excluding compounded rubber) totaled 1.419 million tons, down 11% year-on-year. Among these, exports of standard rubber fell by 12% year-on-year, and latex exports declined by 13% year-on-year. The contraction in overseas supply is providing support for prices.
China supply side: From January to July 2026, Xishuangbanna processed a cumulative total of 516,000 tons of standard natural rubber, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year. The increase in China's supply has put some pressure on high prices.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
