June 18th, it was reported that
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: As of June 18, the average price of premium DMF offered by Chinese companies is 4,760 CNY per ton. This week, the operating rate of China's DMF industry is 65%-70%, a slight decline from last week. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced their load or undergone short-term maintenance due to negative profit margins.
II. Cause Analysis
Market Supply: Raw material costs: Methanol prices are weak and declining, while dimethylamine prices remain firm. Overall cost support is weak, and companies have little intention to hold prices. Inventory situation: Inventories in the East China and South China regions are at high levels (15-20 days), leading to significant pressure to move stock. Some companies are clearing inventory at lower prices, resulting in a loose supply of spot goods.
Market Perspective: Downstream demand is characterized by small, rigid orders with low willingness to make bulk purchases. Upstream inventory pressure remains high, prompting sellers to focus primarily on low-price shipments. Negotiation dynamics are weak, prices remain stable but tend toward the lower end, and trading activity is sluggish. Market competition is intensifying. This week, DMF prices have fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly weaker center of gravity. Spot transactions are light, and both upstream and downstream players are locked in intense bargaining. The core raw material for DMF—methanol—has shown volatile yet generally stronger trends across the national market this week. Spot prices in Shandong, Central China, and Southwest China have risen by 20–135 CNY/ton, while methanol futures at ports have also moved upward in tandem. Prices for dimethylamine and synthetic ammonia raw materials have remained stable with some upward momentum. Integrated enterprises still enjoy relatively manageable costs, whereas manufacturers relying on purchased raw materials continue to face persistently inverted profit margins. As a result, their willingness to sell at low prices has significantly waned, and factories are increasingly inclined to proactively support prices, effectively capping the downward price pressure due to cost constraints.
Demand Side: Currently, the footwear, apparel, luggage, and synthetic leather industries are in the traditional off-season, with few end-customer orders. Small- and medium-sized slurry plants continue to operate at low capacity utilization rates. Raw material procurement is entirely on a just-in-time basis, with small-batch replenishments driven by immediate needs—there is no pre-emptive stockpiling. Environmental regulations are tightening, and waste liquids containing DMF are now classified as hazardous waste, further restricting operations for small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, demand continues to weaken. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical and agrochemical intermediates sector (characterized by rigid demand) remains stable, with procurement volumes staying at normal levels and order fluctuations minimal. This segment provides only a basic floor support to the market but fails to spur bulk purchasing or generate any significant growth. In the electronics and export markets, demand for electronic-grade DMF remains steady, with robust orders for high-end electronic solvents—but their share of total usage remains limited. On the export front, orders from Southeast Asia and South Asia are generally subdued, as downstream overseas markets also enter their typical off-season. Slight increases in ocean freight costs have eroded the cost-effectiveness of exports, resulting in insufficient growth in overseas sales and making it difficult to offset the weak domestic demand in China.
III. Future Market Forecast
DMF analysts believe that with no new major units undergoing scheduled maintenance and as the off-season continues, weak demand will likely keep prices oscillating at lower levels—until the autumn/winter footwear and apparel orders begin to pick up in August and September. Once the pulp and paper industry enters its traditional peak season and demand rebounds, the DMF market will finally see a substantial recovery.
