Styrene-butadiene rubber prices continue to decline, remaining weak and volatile in the short term

June 11th News

Since entering June, China's cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber prices have continued to decline, intensifying the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market forces. Whether the market has reached its bottom has become the industry’s primary focus. According to data, as of June 11, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in East China had fallen to 13,620 CNY per ton, up 4.69% from pre-Iran-U.S. conflict levels but down 24.92% from the peak of 18,140 CNY per ton recorded in early April.

This round of decline was mainly due to the drag from raw materials. Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to weaken, directly lowering the cost center of the industry. Coupled with the spread of pessimistic market sentiment, the price of polybutadiene has followed the downward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 11, the price of butadiene was 10,486 CNY per ton, a decrease of 44.32% from the peak of 18,833 CNY per ton since the conflict in the Middle East. The current market price is already close to the cash cost line of the industry, and most producers are hovering around the break-even point. Further significant price reductions will force production cuts, and the cost end has formed a solid bottom support.

The supply side as a whole shows a loose pattern. China's butadiene rubber facility utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of some new production capacity, the market supply is steadily increasing. As of the week of June 4, the operating rate for butadiene rubber was around 67%. At the same time, the volume of imported goods arriving at ports has increased, leading to a slight accumulation in port inventory, which to some extent suppresses the strength of the spot price rebound. However, after the previous concentrated sell-off, low-priced goods in the market are gradually decreasing, and the panic selling pressure has been largely released.

Demand remains the core factor constraining the market rebound. June to July is the traditional off-season for the tire industry, and Chinese tire factories are operating at low capacity, with both semi-steel and all-steel tire production data showing mediocre performance. As of June 10, the semi-steel tire production in Chinese tire enterprises was around 70%; in Shandong, the all-steel tire production was around 68%. Enterprises are mainly focusing on rigid demand procurement, with a low willingness to replenish raw material inventories. Additionally, changes in the overseas trade environment have also put pressure on tire export orders, making it difficult for overall downstream demand to show any significant improvement.

Future Market Prediction:

From the spot price and moving average chart of polybutadiene rubber, from May to early May 2026, the price of polybutadiene rubber showed a one-sided downward trend, and the price always remained below the 10-day, 20-day, and other moving averages, with the moving averages in a bearish arrangement. The decline continued and accelerated in the later period.

From the butadiene rubber average difference chart, the price of butadiene rubber in China was consistently below the moving average from May to June, with a negative difference, indicating a bearish trend. In early May, the difference was around -280, narrowing to about -100 in mid-May, showing a brief weak rebound signal. By late May, the difference widened rapidly, dropping to around -450, corresponding to an accelerated decline in prices and a significant strengthening of the downward trend. Starting from early June, the difference began to rise from its low point, with the momentum of price decline weakening and gradually returning to the moving average. However, it has not yet escaped the weak range, and it remains to be seen whether it can break through the pressure of the moving average and reverse the current trend.

In the short term, butadiene rubber will fluctuate repeatedly within the range of 13,000-14,000 CNY/ton to digest the negative market factors. For the medium to long-term trend, it is necessary to closely monitor two key indicators: first, whether the price of butadiene can stop falling and stabilize, thus restoring cost support; second, the recovery of tire production rates and the situation of concentrated restocking. Before demand fully recovers, butadiene rubber is unlikely to see a trending rise, and the overall market will mainly feature weak rebounds at the bottom.