June 30 news
In June 2026, the butadiene market in China saw a concentrated release of negative factors, leading to a continuous one-sided decline in prices and a significant drop in the price level. This month, the prices of upstream raw materials continued to fall, weakening the cost support. Additionally, with relatively sufficient butadiene supply in China, social inventory steadily accumulated. At the same time, the downstream industry entered the traditional off-season, resulting in insufficient demand. The overall market transactions were relatively weak, with traders mostly offering discounts to sell. The market was mainly characterized by low-level replenishment based on rigid demand, reflecting a generally weak fundamental situation. According to the commodity market analysis system, from June 1st to June 30th, the price of butadiene in China fell from 11,800 CNY/ton to 8,866.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 24.86% during the period.
Cost Perspective: During the month, international crude oil prices continued to decline, and the premium driven by earlier geopolitical tensions has largely dissipated. As a result, prices of feedstocks such as naphtha and cracked C4 in China have also fallen accordingly, easing the cost pressure on butadiene production. The spot price of ethylene in China has followed suit, alleviating production pressures on refining and petrochemical enterprises and leading to some recovery in production margins. Consequently, manufacturers’ willingness to hold firm on prices has weakened. Meanwhile, overseas butadiene quotations continue to decline, further reducing the landed costs of imported supplies and putting sustained downward pressure on China’s spot market prices. As a result, lower-priced supplies have become more abundant in the market, further driving the overall market trend downward. As of June 29, the settlement price for the August contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $70.75 per barrel, while the settlement price for the September contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $73.91 per barrel.
Supply side:
In June, the supply of butadiene in China was generally loose, with relatively sufficient market availability and a trend of inventory accumulation. Although some facilities in China underwent periodic maintenance this month, the overall scale of maintenance was limited. Most major facilities maintained normal production loads, and some facilities increased production according to demand, ensuring a stable and sufficient supply of domestically produced butadiene, which fully offset the reduction caused by maintenance. At the same time, imported butadiene arrived at ports as scheduled, further supplementing the Chinese market. Under the pressure of overall supply, the pace of downstream pick-ups slowed down, and inventories at ports and among traders continued to accumulate. The spot market had ample circulation, and merchants faced significant pressure to sell. To promote sales, many transactions were made at lower prices, further dragging down market prices.
The listed price of butadiene by Sinopec's sales companies in China is 9,000 CNY per ton as of June 30, a decrease of 3,000 CNY per ton from 12,000 CNY per ton on May 28.
Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with 168 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 8,800 CNY/ton.
Satellite Chemical's 90,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 336 tons for external sales, starting bid at 8,700 CNY/ton.
| Company | Price (CNY/ton) | Capacity | Plant Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dongming Petrochemical | 168 tons for external sales, floor price 8,800 CNY/ton | 50,000 tons | Normal operation, stable supply for external sales |
| Satellite Chemical | 336 tons for external sales, starting bid 8,700 CNY/ton | 90,000 tons | Normal operation, stable supply for external sales |
Demand Side:
In June, the characteristics of the off-season for downstream demand were evident, with overall rigid demand being weak, making it difficult to provide effective support to the market. This month, the tire industry entered the traditional consumption off-season, with a decrease in terminal orders and an accumulation of finished product inventory. Chinese tire companies continued to see a decline in production, leading to a significant reduction in the procurement demand for polybutadiene rubber. Downstream factories mostly replenished their stocks at low levels as needed, with a widespread mentality of seeking lower prices. At the same time, the profitability of major downstream industries such as ABS and SBS was poor, resulting in low production enthusiasm and reduced industry operations. The willingness to actively replenish raw material inventories was weak, and the trading atmosphere in the market was cold. Only a few latex industries maintained rigid demand procurement, but the overall demand volume was limited, unable to improve the weak market situation, further exacerbating the pessimistic sentiment in the market.
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of polybutadiene rubber in China has been continuously declining recently. Data shows that as of June 26, the price of polybutadiene rubber in the East China region was 12,830 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 13,010 CNY/ton at the end of February. The closing price of the main futures contract for polybutadiene rubber fell to 11,810 CNY/ton. It has completely given back all the price increase caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, returning to the benchmark range before the conflict erupted.
Future Market Forecast:
Looking at the market fundamentals for June, the short-term weak trend in China’s butadiene market is unlikely to see any significant improvement, and prices will probably continue to fluctuate weakly. On the cost side, there are currently no clear signs of upward momentum; crude oil and feedstock prices remain weak, making it difficult to provide support for spot prices. On the supply side, overall supply remains ample, and inventory accumulation continues to put pressure on the market, making it hard to ease selling pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, demand remains in the traditional off-season, with downstream industries such as tires and ABS facing difficulties in significantly boosting their operating rates. Consequently, rigid demand provides only limited support, and the market will likely continue to be dominated by a wait-and-see attitude and cautious purchasing behavior. Overall, in the short term, the butadiene market lacks sufficient rebound momentum, and prices are expected to remain in a weak consolidation phase. Going forward, close attention should be paid to developments in crude oil prices, the recovery of downstream operating rates, and any changes in plant maintenance that could impact market fundamentals.
