September 20th report:
Since September, the butadiene rubber market in China has initially surged and then fluctuated at high levels in the middle of the month. Data shows that as of September 20, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 15,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.43% from 15,180 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, with the highest point during the period reaching 16,210 CNY/ton. The cost and supply side provided strong support for butadiene rubber, while weak downstream demand to some extent suppressed the price increase of butadiene rubber.
Butadiene prices first rose and then fell in September. At the beginning of the month, butadiene prices increased due to plant maintenance for cracking and the rise in crude oil prices. In the middle of the month, as maintenance units gradually resumed production and port inventory increased, butadiene prices adjusted downward. Data shows that by mid-September, the port inventory of butadiene in East China was 23,700 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons from the previous period. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of September 20, the price of butadiene was 13,833 CNY/ton, up 3.75% from 13,333 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 6.74% from the peak of 14,833 CNY/ton within the cycle.
On the supply side, since September, facilities at Qilu and Taiwan Rubber have been shut down for maintenance, while privately owned plants have cut production due to losses. As a result, China’s high‑cis polybutadiene operating rate has fallen to 59%, leading to a decline in weekly output. Meanwhile, social inventories continue to draw down, with low stock levels providing support to rubber prices at the bottom.
Downstream tire production has declined, providing insufficient support for polybutadiene rubber. As of September 11, the semi-steel tire operating rate in China was 65.53%; the all-steel tire operating rate was 63.53%. The inventory turnover for semi-steel tires was 44.7 days, and for all-steel tires, it was 36.4 days, with weak demand for commercial and passenger vehicles. Although tire companies have collectively announced price increases of 2%-5%, high raw material costs are compressing profits, and factories are only maintaining rigid demand procurement, showing little willingness to actively replenish inventory. The peak season has not met expectations.
Future Market Forecast:
The spot price of cis‑1,4‑polybutadiene rubber and its moving averages indicate that, since late June, the spot price has reversed upward, steadily climbing along the moving‑average trend to form a bullish alignment. Entering September, prices surged above 16,000 before retreating, breaking below the 5‑day short‑term moving average and signaling a slowdown in the near‑term rally. The 10‑ and 20‑day moving averages remain tilted higher, suggesting that medium‑term support remains intact. In the short term, prices may trade in a range or pull back, testing the support levels of the 10‑ and 20‑day moving averages; if these supports hold, the bullish bias will persist. Conversely, a decisive break below these moving averages would weaken the current rebound.
Overall, in the short term, butadiene rubber will maintain a high and wide fluctuation. Low inventory and ongoing maintenance of facilities continue to support prices; however, with the expectation of butadiene plant restarts, cost support is weakening, and resistance from downstream sectors to high prices limits upward potential. If maintenance continues or there are geopolitical disruptions in crude oil, there is an opportunity for price rebound.
