July 9 news
July ethylene glycol prices fell in China
In July 2026, the price of ethylene glycol stopped falling. According to the data, as of July 9th, the average spot market price of oil-based ethylene glycol traders in China was 4346.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.02% from the market average price of 4391.67 CNY/ton on July 1st; and an increase of 1.28% from the market average price of 4291.67 CNY/ton on July 2nd.
Port paper ethylene glycol prices in China are mainly based on basis pricing, with prices closely following the fluctuations of the futures market. In July 2026, as the ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded, the basis prices for port paper ethylene glycol also remained relatively firm. As of the 9th, for the spot contracts of ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons), the intraday quotes for the basis of this week's spot contracts were operating within the range of +144 to +156.
The ex-factory price for spot Chinese coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) is 3630-3800 CNY/ton.
July 2026 Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Changes:
On July 9, 2026, the total spot inventory of monoethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 427,500 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the total spot inventory of 517,500 tons on June 29, 2026, in the main ports of East China.
Reasons for the Stabilization of Ethylene Glycol Prices in July 2026:
In July 2026, the prices of ethylene glycol in China stabilized. This was mainly due to several factors:
1. Supply and Demand Balance: The supply and demand in the domestic market reached a relatively balanced state, which helped to stabilize prices. 2. Production Adjustments: Domestic producers adjusted their production levels, reducing excess supply and supporting price stability. 3. Raw Material Costs: The cost of raw materials, such as ethylene, remained stable, which also contributed to the stabilization of ethylene glycol prices. 4. Market Sentiment: Improved market sentiment and increased confidence among buyers and sellers in the Chinese market also played a role in stabilizing prices.
These factors collectively contributed to the stabilization of ethylene glycol prices in China in July 2026.
In the first half of July 2026, the logic behind the stabilization of ethylene glycol prices is concentrated in six dimensions: supply contraction in China, continuous deep destocking at ports, cost bottom support, recovery of geopolitical sentiment, strengthening of spot basis, and expectations of downstream inventory buildup.
1. Chinese facilities undergo concentrated maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in domestic supply:
Oil-to-ethylene integrated plants undergo concentrated shutdowns: In July, large ethylene glycol units at Shenghong Refining and Hengli Petrochemical enter monthly maintenance; the restart of units at Yangzi Petrochemical and Wuhan Petrochemical is delayed, causing the operating rate of MEG production from ethylene in China to drop to around 50%, with a significant reduction in monthly domestic production.
Coal-to-syngas plants enter a maintenance peak: multiple coal-to-chemicals facilities, including Yankuang, Zhengdakai, and Hongfangsi, have reduced their load or shut down. Although some northwest coal-to-chemicals plant maintenance has been postponed, overall non-ethylene process operations have weakened compared to the previous period. China's total operating rate remains at a low level of 53%-56%, with monthly total production declining and spot market supply tightening.
New capacity release gap: Throughout the year, large-scale new oil-based facilities will be commissioned in concentrated fashion during the fourth quarter. No new capacity will come online in July, meaning there will be no short-term supply surge to put downward pressure on prices.
2. Imports arriving at ports were below expectations, leading to continuous and significant inventory reduction at ports, with inventories hitting record lows for the same period:
The short-term increase in imports from the Middle East is limited: Although navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumed in June, the release of floating storage of ethylene glycol in the Middle East has been slow. In early July, the forecast for arrivals in China remained in the single digits for a long time, with low weekly arrivals. The increase in imports is expected to be realized in August, while the total imports in July remain weak.
East China ports + national social inventory continue to decrease: The inventory at the main ports in East China is at its lowest level for the same period in the past five years; in early July, port and national social inventory decreased simultaneously, with the weekly reduction continuing to expand, tightening the market's spot liquidity, and there is no logic of inventory accumulation suppressing prices.
Typhoon weather disrupts arrivals: Typhoons frequently occur along the eastern coast of China from July to August, causing ships to be delayed in ports and unloading to be postponed, which further temporarily reduces the circulation of spot goods and intensifies the expectation of a tight balance.
3. The cost side has formed a clear bottom for the decline, and losses are inhibiting manufacturers from further price cuts:
Oil-based route is deeply in the red, and manufacturers have a strong desire to maintain prices: At the beginning of July, the loss from naphtha-based ethylene glycol production expanded to $180 per ton. Continuous price declines will force refineries to further reduce loads and be more reluctant to sell externally, with downward space locked by costs.
Profitability of coal-to-ethylene glycol routes has improved, removing the incentive for low-price liquidation: Coal prices have weakened over the same period, enabling coal-to-ethylene glycol plants to turn their cash flow from loss to profit. As a result, factories are under no pressure to sell off inventory, and spot quotes remain firm.
Geopolitical tensions surrounding crude oil and the recovery of cost sentiment: In early July, U.S.-Iran friction escalated once again, prompting market concerns about disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Brent crude oil halted its decline and began to stabilize and rebound, while naphtha also staged a synchronous rebound. Overall, valuation in the energy and chemical sector has begun to recover, boosting sentiment on the ethylene glycol cost side.
4. Spot basis continues to strengthen, traders concentrate on replenishing stocks at low levels:
The spot price is significantly in premium relative to the futures: In July, the spot price was 140–165 CNY/ton higher than the September contract—a long-term premium. The market has established a “strong near, weak far” pattern, characterized by tight supply in the near-month contracts and relatively loose supply in the far-month contracts. As the spot price was the first to halt its decline, it helped stabilize the futures market as well.
5. Downstream polyester sees marginal improvement in the off-season, with early trading expected for the peak season in September.
Polyester load slightly increased, and rigid demand procurement has risen: In July, the processing profits of polyester filament and staple fiber were restored. Some large factories promoted sales to reduce finished product inventory, leading to a slight increase in polyester production. The rigid demand for ethylene glycol also saw a small increase, completely preventing a bottomless fall due to lack of demand.
Traditional "Golden September" peak season expectations are brewing: The market is trading in advance the logic of stockpiling for the textile and packaging peak seasons in August and September. Downstream bottle chip and weaving enterprises are locking in forward raw materials at low prices, with forward buying entering the market to support prices.
6. Macro and funding sentiment turning point, bears take profits and exit:
Previous negative factors have been fully priced in: In June, the market had already priced in all the negative impacts—“Strait Shipping’s operational challenges, increased import volumes, the off-season for polyester, and weakening crude oil prices.” With no new major negative factors emerging in July, short-selling funds have begun to take profits and exit the market en masse.
