On September 8, 2026, the spot price of DOP in China continued to rise, with the highest single-day price increase from major manufacturers reaching 200 CNY per ton. However, according to the average difference method, the current combination of differences shows a "+, -, +" pattern, which is a warning signal for stagnation. Given that the DOP price is currently in the high range of its one-year cycle, the room for further increases is limited, and there is a need to be cautious about the risk of a pullback from the high level. The latest available data is up to September 8, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Calculation of Average Deviation Index
| Indicator | Today’s Value (2026.09.08) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.09.07) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Moving Average Difference (D5) | 121.66 | 20 | + |
| 10-day Moving Average Difference (D10) | 104.17 | 120 | - |
| 20-day Moving Average Difference (D20) | 155.42 | 148.75 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change combination is (+, -, +), which belongs to a stagflation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the directions of the three average differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend.
4. Price Position and Upside/Downside Potential
Prices for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles are all at high levels, corresponding to the 5th percentile of the 5-level scale. Currently, the price is in the top 20% range within the cycle, leaving limited room for further upward movement.
V. Recent Spot Market Dynamics in China
On September 8, the mainstream DOP manufacturer quotes in China collectively increased: Shengfeng Chemical in Shandong raised its DOP quote by 150 CNY/ton to 9,955 CNY/ton, Yimei De Chemical in Dongying raised its quote by 100 CNY/ton to 9,850 CNY/ton, Liancheng Chemical in Zhenjiang raised its quote by 200 CNY/ton to 10,250 CNY/ton, and Hongbo New Materials in Zhejiang raised its quote by 100 CNY/ton to 10,200 CNY/ton. The actual transaction prices generally rose.
VI. Upstream Cost Support Situation
The upstream core raw materials for DOP—iso-octanol and phthalic anhydride—are both at the high end of their one-year price cycles: As of September 8, the average price of iso-octanol was 9,166.67 CNY/ton, and the average price of phthalic anhydride was 9,483.33 CNY/ton, providing strong cost support for DOP.
7. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VIII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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