July 17th, according to news,
According to the commodity market analysis system, from July 10 to July 17, 2026, the toluene market in China rose. The price of toluene in Shandong region increased from 5,977.67 CNY/ton to 6,500 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 8.74% during the period.
During the period, favorable market factors became evident, with robust support from the cost side and a tight supply of goods within the market, collectively driving up the price of toluene. Overall, this round of price increases was driven by both cost and supply-demand factors. However, after prices continued to rise, the momentum for further market growth weakened, and downstream purchasing became more cautious. Currently, the spot market is showing a high-level fluctuation trend.
Cost Side: Crude oil prices remain volatile and weak, with continued insufficient support.
This cycle, the international crude oil trend was strong, with significant cost support for the aromatics industry chain. Crude oil prices steadily rose, driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as naphtha, and continuously increasing the production costs of toluene. Aromatics bulk night trading was also strong, although there was limited intraday volatility, the overall sentiment was positive, providing continuous cost support for the spot price of toluene, becoming one of the core driving factors of this round of price increases. As of July 16, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures August contract was $78.28 per barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures September contract was $84.23 per barrel.
Supply side: Supply remains tight, with low inventory levels.
China's toluene supply remains tight, with inventories staying at low levels. On one hand, the impact of plant maintenance at major refineries continues, limiting the output of domestic sources; on the other hand, insufficient import resources and a significant reduction in port inventory have not alleviated the tight supply situation in the spot market. In major production areas such as Shandong and East China, spot resources are scarce, and industry players have a strong intention to maintain high prices, further strengthening the upward momentum of prices. Coupled with cost advantages, this has supported a significant increase in toluene prices for this period.
Demand Side: Urgent need to replenish inventory
Downstream demand shows a "stable essential demand, cautious towards high prices" trend. Essential demand in traditional sectors such as coatings, inks, and adhesives remains stable, supporting basic procurement needs. However, after the continuous and rapid increase in toluene prices, downstream companies in China face increased cost pressure, leading to a reduced willingness to replenish stocks at high prices. They mainly follow up with small, essential orders, and the buying sentiment has become more cautious. The demand for blending and exports is acceptable, providing some marginal support to the market, but it is not enough to drive large-scale concentrated purchases. Overall, trading activity is moderate and fails to generate sustained momentum for the market.
Market Forecast:
The short-term toluene market is likely to maintain a high-range fluctuation pattern. On the positive side, the cost support from crude oil remains, and the fundamentals of tight supply and low inventory in China continue, providing a solid bottom support for prices. On the negative side, after a continuous rise, there is a lack of new bullish stimuli, and downstream buyers are reluctant to chase higher prices, leading to an increasing risk of a pullback from the high levels. It is expected that the pace of toluene price increases will slow down in the short term, with the market mainly focusing on consolidation at high levels and range-bound fluctuations. Close attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil, refinery operating dynamics, and changes in downstream purchasing patterns.
