August 31 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, in August 2026, the Chinese toluene market showed an overall upward trend with fluctuations. The average market price on August 1st was 6,620 CNY/ton, and by August 31st, it had risen to 7,206.67 CNY/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 8.86% for the month. The core drivers of this upward trend were the strengthening crude oil prices and the tight supply of toluene in China. Downstream demand remained at a basic level, limiting the extent of the price increase. Throughout the month, the market exhibited a pattern of "cost support, supply-driven price increases, and demand constraints" leading to a stronger but fluctuating market.
Cost aspect:
In August, rising toluene prices were the core driver behind higher costs. Ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to disrupt shipping routes, causing U.S. WTI and Brent crude oil futures to fluctuate and rise throughout the month, directly pushing up upstream naphtha feedstock prices as well. As a result, the refining and chemical production costs of toluene kept climbing, firmly underpinning the spot price from the source. As of August 28, the settlement price for the October contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $83.40 per barrel, while the settlement price for the November contract of Brent crude oil futures reached $88.10 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the industrial chain exhibits a significant synergy effect: aromatic hydrocarbons such as pure benzene and xylene have all strengthened simultaneously. The bullish sentiment on aromatic hydrocarbon futures contracts is strong, and both refineries and holders continue to show increasing willingness to support prices. At the same time, Asian spot prices for toluene have risen in tandem with crude oil, driving CFR China prices to remain at high levels. As a result, the import arbitrage window continues to narrow, raising overseas procurement costs for traders and dashing expectations of low-priced imported supplies replenishing the Chinese market. Although crude oil experienced a temporary pullback in the mid-to-late part of the month, the cumulative price increases from earlier periods have already been fully passed along to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain. Consequently, the cost curves of toluene producers have also shifted upward, leaving little room for spot prices to fall sharply. The cost-support logic has thus underpinned the entire month’s market performance.
Supply side:
In July, the supply of toluene in the Chinese market was generally tight, providing strong support for prices. This month, the facility utilization rate of toluene producers in China remained at a medium-low level. Some refineries underwent plant maintenance and load adjustments, leading to a reduction in the available supply of toluene in the market. At the same time, port inventories of toluene continued to run at low levels, with limited circulating supplies, and the tight situation of spot resources persisted. The tightening on the supply side led to an insufficient circulation of spot goods, and merchants were reluctant to sell, further driving up the price of toluene. This became an important supporting factor for the increase in toluene prices in July.
Demand Side:
According to the commodity market analysis system, Sinopec's PX execution price remained stable at 8,500 CNY per ton in August, with no price adjustments for the entire month. This price was uniformly implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated stably, and sales were normal.
International Market: In August, Asian toluene spot prices fluctuated and rose. At the beginning of the month, prices remained at lower levels, weighed down by relatively weak crude oil prices. By the end of the month, FOB Korea closed at USD 955–960 per ton, while CFR China closed at USD 978–983 per ton. Throughout the month, volatile rises in international crude oil prices pushed up naphtha costs, boosting the overall performance of the aromatics industry chain. As a result, overseas spot prices rose by more than USD 75 per ton compared to the end of July. However, downstream chemical demand in Asia has not kept pace, limiting the extent of price rebounds. Overall, market trends continue to closely follow fluctuations in international crude oil prices.
In August, downstream demand showed a clear divergence, with limited support from rigid demand, which became the main factor suppressing a significant price surge. Gasoline blending benefited from a slight recovery in oil consumption during the peak season, and the improvement in processing profits for PX production via disproportionation led to increased plant operations, forming stable rigid demand procurement. However, the solvent industries, such as coatings and inks, were in their traditional off-season, with weak terminal orders. Downstream TDI enterprises saw their profits eroded by the rise in toluene prices, leading to resistance against high-priced raw materials. Downstream factories maintained a just-in-time purchasing rhythm, with no concentrated restocking activities. The market mainly saw small-scale rigid demand transactions, lacking large incremental buying, making it difficult to sustain a continuous and significant price increase. By the end of the month, the momentum for market increases gradually weakened, and the market entered a phase of high-level fluctuation.
Market Forecast:
The short-term Chinese toluene market remains in a high and narrow range. The positive factors include low port and refinery inventories, with the tight balance of spot supply unlikely to improve in the short term, continued cost support from crude oil, and a lack of willingness from refineries to actively lower prices. The negative factors are the slight weakening of crude oil at the end of the month, a cooling of bullish market sentiment, pressure on downstream processing costs, and limited increases in rigid demand procurement, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum. Subsequent key points to monitor include international crude oil, port inventory, the volume of refinery sales, and changes in the operation of downstream disproportionation and blending.
