July 24th News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 26, the average price of top-grade DMF from Chinese companies is 4,420 CNY per ton. The overall DMF market in China is characterized by a low and stagnant situation with narrow fluctuations. The mainstream delivered price in East China is 4,500-4,600 CNY per ton, while in Shandong and North China it is 4,370-4,470 CNY per ton, and in South China it is 4,600-4,700 CNY per ton. Some factories are quoting around 4,300-4,420 CNY per ton, with the decline slowing down compared to the previous period, but there is no strength for a rebound.
II. Analysis of Causes
Market Perspective: The interplay between weak supply and weak demand is evident. On the supply side, spot supplies are abundant, with some plants alternating between maintenance and restarts; major manufacturers are showing a willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, we’re in the traditional off-season characterized by high temperatures. Polyurethane (PU) resin—accounting for roughly 60% of total consumption—is seeing insufficient orders from industries such as footwear, apparel, and luggage, prompting downstream buyers to adopt a “just-in-time” procurement approach. Actual transactions mainly consist of small, essential orders. Traders are actively selling off inventory to reduce stock levels, and market sentiment remains heavily cautious.
Regarding raw materials: Methanol prices have been fluctuating and trending weaker, influenced by expectations of accumulating inventories at ports. Liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia prices have remained generally stable, with limited cost-supporting effects. As raw material prices decline in tandem, theoretical factory profits have stayed around 300 CNY per ton. Leading enterprises still remain profitable and show little willingness to proactively cut production or support prices; thus, cost factors are unlikely to drive price increases.
Construction Status: The industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at a low level of 40%–45% (recent statistics show approximately 44.6%). In regions such as Henan, Guizhou, and Shandong, some facilities have reduced output, undergone short-term shutdowns, or been idled for extended periods due to profit pressures or inventory buildup. As a result, the increase in supply has slowed down; however, the overall oversupply situation persists, and the supply remains relatively loose.
III. Future Market Forecast
DMF analysts believe: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level, with insufficient momentum for an increase. If the raw material methanol continues to weaken and maintenance facilities restart, supply pressure will reappear; attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance by major factories and changes in the listed prices by the end of July. After August-September, if autumn and winter orders start and demand picks up, there may be a substantial opportunity for a rebound. Currently, the focus is still on digesting inventory and following up on rigid demand.
