August 24 news
[Key Insight] In the short term, MTBE prices are at a cyclical high. The mean-reversion indicator suggests a strong, consolidating (bullish-biased) oscillatory pattern. Companies in Shandong, China, have continuously raised their quoted prices. On the international market, price movements are mixed. Coupled with a substantial year-on-year increase in July export volumes, prices remain firmly consolidated at high levels. It is crucial to closely monitor developments in the international market and changes in downstream demand.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-23) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-22) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 40.00 | 87.20 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 155.00 | 143.40 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 33.00 | 4.35 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
Currently, the market is in a volatile yet strong consolidation phase (leaning bullish). This is because the 5-day moving average difference has narrowed compared to yesterday (change direction: -), while the 10-day and 20-day moving average differences have widened compared to yesterday (change direction: +). The directions of change among these three moving averages are not entirely consistent, which aligns with the logic of a strong consolidation phase that leans bullish.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Volatility (slightly bullish), reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent (the 5-day moving average is narrowing, while the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are widening), failing to meet the criteria for a clear trend. Therefore, we judge the market as volatile. In addition, MTBE producers in Shandong, China, have continuously raised their quoted prices, and July export volumes increased by 41.30% year-on-year, indicating a short-term strong consolidation with a slightly bullish bias.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high level), with limited room for further increases.
The 3-month cycle is in the 5th tier (high level);
The 1-year cycle is in the 4th tier (medium-to-high level);
Overall prices are at the upper end of the cyclical range, with limited room for further upward movement. However, in the short term, prices remain firmly consolidated, supported by higher Chinese quotations and strong export data. Should overseas markets rebound or downstream demand pick up, prices could continue to fluctuate at high levels.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Products
Upstream commodity: Methanol
Downstream Products: Gasoline blending agent, methyl acrolein, polymer-grade isobutene, methacrylic acid, isobutene
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
