For better fluency and naturalness in English, it could be slightly adjusted to: [Polyethylene Terephthalate Bottle Chips See Initial Rise Followed by Decline This Week, Trend Shows Minor Fluctuations and Recovery]
July 10 news
This week (July 6-10), the polyester bottle chip market showed a narrow fluctuation and recovery trend, with the weekly average price of spot water-grade bottles in East China at 7,031 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.40% week-on-week. At the beginning of the week, due to cost support from the concentrated maintenance of crude oil, PX, and PTA facilities, and the stimulation of low prices that prompted downstream buyers to make small-scale stock replenishments, the spot price rose continuously from a low of 6,850-6,900 CNY/ton. Mid-week, factories raised their offers by 50-100 CNY/ton, pushing the transaction center up to 7,080-7,250 CNY/ton. However, with the overall supply being loose and the peak season inventory preparation for downstream beverages largely completed, the willingness to accept high prices was weak, and trading gradually slowed down. The futures market for bottle chips first fluctuated upwards and then fell sharply on Friday, with a cumulative decline of 3.89% for the week, dragging down the sentiment for the spot market. By Friday, the transaction center for spot prices had dropped back to 7,000-7,150 CNY/ton. The favorable cost factors were unable to reverse the weak supply and demand situation, limiting the height of this round of rebound, and the market returned to a weak fluctuation by the end of the week.
I. Overall Trend (East China Water Bottle Grade, Inclusive of Tax, Spot Price)
1. Weekly average spot price: 7,031 CNY/ton, up slightly by 0.40% from the previous week, ending the sharp decline that had persisted since late June. The market has shown a narrow rebound characterized by initial volatile recovery, a modest rally mid-week, and a weakening of spot prices on Friday due to downward pressure from futures. The weekly price range was as follows: Monday’s low at 6,850–6,900 CNY/ton; mid-week, major producers raised their quoted prices by 50–100 CNY/ton, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 7,080 to 7,250 CNY/ton; on Friday, as futures prices fell, spot transaction prices shifted lower, settling between 7,000 and 7,150 CNY/ton ex-factory.
Export FOB: East China $940-965/ton, South China $935-960/ton, export quotations have slightly increased, with more discounts in actual negotiations.
2. Futures market (main PR bottle chip contract)
This week saw an overall decline, with the closing price on Friday at 6812 yuan, a single-day drop of 82 points, a price decrease of 1.20%; the cumulative decline for the week was 3.89%, with futures weaker than spot prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices continued to widen, suppressing the significant upward space for spot prices.
II. Breakdown of the Core Driving Logic (1): On the Cost Side—Strong First, Then Weaker; Crude Oil and PX Provide Stage-Based Support at the Bottom Level
At the beginning of the week, repeated geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, and PX facilities underwent concentrated maintenance. With low operating rates for Asian PX, the costs of naphtha and PX increased, providing support to PTA. On Friday, market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions led to a weakening in crude oil, and the upward trend in upstream raw materials dissipated, resulting in a marginal decrease in cost support.
PTA (main raw material for bottle flakes)
In July, multiple PTA plants in China underwent maintenance, causing the industry's operating rate to fall to a low level in recent years, and the spot basis strengthened; however, on Friday, PTA futures closed down significantly by 2.15%, with spot processing fees retreating and the support from the raw material end declining rapidly.
Ethylene glycol MEG
This week saw relatively strong volatility, closing at 4,186 yuan on Friday—a price increase of 1.55%. This slight rebound partially offset the cost losses caused by the weakening PTA market; however, the overall price increase remained limited, making it difficult to reverse the expectation of continued cost weakness.
Bottle flake processing fee
Spot processing fees remained at 590-615 CNY/ton, with a slight contraction during the week. Upstream raw material profits squeezed the production profits of bottle chips, and factories were not strongly motivated to significantly increase prices.
(2) Supply side: The loose pattern remains unchanged, and the rebound height is limited.
Industry operating rates are stable at 72.5%. Multiple plants in Sichuan, Jiangyin, and Shandong that were previously under maintenance have continued to resume production and feedstock input, with new capacities gradually being released. The market supply of spot goods continues to increase; only a few plants are under short-term maintenance, and the overall resumed production capacity far exceeds the capacity under maintenance.
The available days of inventory in the factory is 10.61 days, a slight decrease of 0.13 days from the previous period, with a slow destocking speed. The inventory level remains at a moderately high level, and the pressure on factories to move goods continues to exist, showing a weaker willingness to sell at high prices. Recycled bottle chips are also under pressure, with low prices for recycled materials diverting some of the lower-end demand from virgin bottle chips, further limiting the price increase space for virgin bottle chips.
(3) Demand side: The peak season is not as strong as expected, with only rigid demand supporting, and there is a lack of momentum to chase higher prices.
Chinese beverage terminal
July is traditionally the peak season for beverages, but downstream preform and water plants in China have already secured long-term orders for July and August in advance, with sufficient inventory. After a slight rebound in prices this week, downstream buyers resisted high prices, maintaining only rigid demand procurement, with very few large-scale restocking activities. Overall, the production and sales rate in the industry remains low.
China's soft drink production from January to May increased by only 0.4% year-on-year, with the increase in end consumption below expectations, and the peak season's driving force was weaker than in previous years.
Export demand
From January to May, bottle flake exports increased by only 0.2% year-on-year. With the commissioning of local PET production capacity in Southeast Asia, coupled with rising ocean freight costs and subdued overseas demand, the increase in export orders has been limited, making it difficult to effectively absorb China’s surplus supply.
Other downstream applications (sheets, daily chemical packaging)
Demand is stable with no increase, and orders are mainly small short-term ones, with no concentrated stockpiling activities.
III. Next Week’s Market Forecast (Jul 13–Jul 17)
Price trend: The overall market is weak and fluctuating, with the spot price center likely to fall within the range of 6900-7050 CNY/ton, and futures continue to face pressure.
On the cost side: With expectations of easing geopolitical tensions rising, prices of crude oil, PX, and PTA face downward pressure, and cost support is gradually weakening.
Supply side: Production-restarting facilities continue to ramp up output, further boosting industry utilization rates. As a result, spot supply is increasing, making it more challenging to deplete inventories.
On the demand side: Downstream long-term orders have been fully stocked, with no plans for concentrated restocking. Procurement is primarily driven by rigid demand, and there’s insufficient willingness to accept higher prices. Exports are unlikely to show any significant improvement.
