July 31st News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On July 31, 2026, the average price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke was 1,957 CNY/ton. Spot: The first round of price reduction (wet quenching -50, dry quenching -55 CNY/ton) was implemented on July 22, and the second round of price reduction was fully executed on July 28-29, with the same magnitude as the first round. As of July 31, the ex-warehouse price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1,630 CNY/ton (down 10 yuan from the previous week), Tangshan first grade dry quenched coke was 2,175 CNY/ton, Changzhi quasi-first grade dry quenched coke was 1,975 CNY/ton, and Lüliang quasi-first grade dry quenched coke was about 1,580 CNY/ton. The mainstream price of quasi-first grade wet quenched coke at the port was 1,650 CNY/ton.
2. Market Analysis
Market Trading: Domestic coal: Shanxi safety supervision institutionalization (Seventeen Articles for comments), some coal mines have suspended operations due to expired licenses, and resumption of production is slow. Low-sulfur main coking coal is structurally tight (Linfen low-sulfur at 2020 CNY/ton remains stable), but the price of medium-sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong has decreased by 10 yuan per week. Luliang high-sulfur main coking coal is traded at 1645 CNY/ton, with mixed results in auctions, and the overall market is weak and volatile. Imported coal: Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is operating weakly at 1170-1179 CNY/ton, with cold transactions at the border; Australian secondary line coking coal arriving by sea is at 1670 CNY/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan per week), and the port inventory of imported coking coal is 670 million tons (an increase of 316,000 tons per week).
Market aspect: Pig iron: The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills in China is 235.55-237.7 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.5-2.15 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate is 82.09% (a weekly decrease of 0.64 percentage points), and the capacity utilization rate is 89.21%. Tangshan implemented stricter production limits at the end of July (20% reduction for blast furnaces). Steel mill profits: Rebar blast furnace profit is approximately -79 CNY per ton, and the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to 34.63%-37.23%, with the loss margin expanding. Mills have shifted from "ensuring production and receiving goods" to "controlling volume, reducing inventory, and lowering prices." Purchasing behavior: The available days of coke for steel mills is 11.99 days, which is relatively high. Most mills have stopped locking in prices in advance and are only purchasing based on immediate needs. Traders are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, while coke enterprises are slowing down their shipments and increasing promotions through hidden price reductions.
Steel Demand and Supply:
Supply: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants stands at 74.67%, with an average daily output of 641,000 tons. Steel mills’ coking coal production amounts to 474,000 tons, bringing the total daily output to 1.115 million tons. Under conditions of very low profits, there is little incentive for producers to proactively cut production (although this week the Coking Coal Association called for a 30% production reduction, but whether this will actually be implemented remains uncertain).
Demand: As molten iron production declines, daily coke consumption follows suit. Assuming that approximately 0.5 tons of coke are consumed per ton of molten iron, a weekly decline of 20,000 tons in molten iron production translates into a reduction of about 10,000 tons/day in the baseline demand for coke.
3. Future Market Prediction
Coke analysts believe that, in the short term (mid-to-late August), before steel mill profits recover, the third round of price cuts (expected in early August) remains highly likely. According to institutional estimates, this round will involve a total of 3-4 rounds of price reductions, with each round bringing a cut of 50-55 CNY per ton. The price for quasi-first-grade dry quenched coke could fall further into the range of 1,740–1,865 CNY per ton, while the price for quasi-first-grade wet-quenched coke at ports could drop to between 1,600 and 1,650 CNY per ton. On the futures market, J2609 faces resistance around 1,800–1,850 yuan, with support at the cost level of 1,780 yuan below that.
