July 28th News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On July 28, 2026, the average price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke was 1,957 CNY/ton. From late March to June 2026, due to tightened safety inspections on coking coal and cost-driven increases, the price of coke rose for 9 rounds (wet quenched coke increased by a cumulative 450 CNY/ton, and dry quenched coke by 495 CNY/ton). The price of quasi-first grade dry quenched coke in Shanxi Province once reached 1,970–2,025 CNY/ton.
2. Market Analysis
Market Trading: July Trend Reversal: The tenth round of price hikes did not materialize. On July 22, the first round of price cuts by major steel mills in Hebei and Shandong (50 CNY/ton for wet quenching and 55 CNY/ton for dry quenching) was implemented. Around July 27, the second round of price cuts began, with expectations of implementation around July 29. The futures market has already priced in the pessimistic expectations, and the spot market has officially entered a downward cycle after the "strong coke, weak steel" situation reversed. The mainstream ex-warehouse price of first-grade wet quenched coke at Chinese ports has dropped to around 1,710 CNY/ton. Traders have slowed down their port inventory accumulation, and speculative demand has left the market, leading to weaker trading activity.
Market Perspective: Supply: Following the Shanxi coal mine accident, safety inspections have been tightened and resumption of production has slowed down. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines stands at around 67.8%, with daily raw coal output hovering at approximately 1.52 million tons—still lower year-on-year. The structural tightness in prime coking coal remains unchanged. Prices: The Zhongjia·Xinhua Coking Coal Spot Index stood at 1,503 points, while the auction price reached 1,615 points (relatively strong in late June). However, in July, the number of failed bids in online auctions increased, and prices for blended coking coal began to decline. Coke enterprises’ coking coal inventories totaled 91.758 million tons (down 269,000 tons week-on-week), and their willingness to replenish stocks remains weak. Conclusion: Although costs are supported at the bottom level, the ability to prop up prices is waning, making it difficult for coke prices to reverse their downward trend on their own. Should Shanxi’s coal mines subsequently ramp up production and resume operations at a greater scale, cost support will further weaken.
Steel Demand: Pig iron: The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills in China fell from a high of 2.43 million tons to 2.377 million tons (in the week of July 24, a weekly decrease of 15,100 tons). The blast furnace operating rate was 82.09% (a weekly decrease of 0.64 percentage points). Steel mill profits: The profit margin fell to 37.23%, with over 60% of steel companies incurring losses. Rebar prices weakened to the range of 3,050–3,100 CNY per ton. Finished product inventories increased. Procurement behavior: From July 25 to 29, Tangshan implemented a 20% reduction in blast furnace production and a 40% reduction in sintering. Steel mills generally controlled production volumes, reduced inventories, and purchased on a need basis, taking a firm stance on lowering coke prices.
III. Future Market Forecast
Coke analysts believe: In the short term (late July to mid-August): The second round of price reductions is expected to be implemented, with the market generally anticipating 3-4 more rounds of price reductions. Pig iron production is likely to continue declining to around 2.35 million tons, and coke spot prices will remain weak and volatile, with port first-grade wet quenched coke potentially testing support at 1650-1680 CNY/ton.
