August 12th, news
On August 11, the PVC market in China showed a steady rise, with futures increasing at noon, supporting spot prices. Dealers in Zibo and Linyi regions slightly raised their quotes. According to the average difference analysis, the current PVC price is in a fluctuating state, showing a deep correction and a bearish signal. In terms of price position, it is at a low level over a one-year cycle, with limited room for a mid-term decline. The short-term market is supported by futures and is operating relatively strongly.
I. Core Market Analysis
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-11) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-10) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -5.40 | -0.50 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 22.80 | 25.40 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -14.95 | -21.30 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The combination of changes in the three divided differences compared to the previous day is (-, -, +), which constitutes a deep pullback signal (bearish, with a corrective nature).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The price trend is oscillating, as the direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent. This aligns with the rule in the moving average difference method that "if the moving directions are inconsistent, the trend is oscillating." The current trend shows a deep correction with a bearish nature.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
- The 1-year cycle price is at a low level, and the medium-term downside potential is limited.
- The 3-month cycle price is at a moderate to low level, with relatively small periodic downward pressure. 60-day cycle price is at a moderate level, with relatively balanced upside and downside potential in a fluctuating market.
II. Regional Spot Market Dynamics
- Zibo Area: On August 11, the PVC market showed a steady yet upward trend. The rise in futures prices during the afternoon session boosted spot prices, prompting dealers to raise their quoted prices by around 20 yuan compared to the previous trading day. Currently, the mainstream ex-factory price for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 PVC ranges from 4,470 to 4,520 CNY per ton. On August 10, the market was consolidating, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range, and the mainstream ex-factory price stood between 4,450 and 4,500 CNY per ton.
- Linyi Area: On August 11, the PVC market experienced volatile trading with a slight upward trend. Futures prices edged higher, providing support for stable spot prices. Dealers quoted prices that were up by no more than 20 yuan compared to the previous trading day. Market sentiment was moderate, and transactions remained reasonably active. Currently, mainstream quotations for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 PVC are in the range of 4,480–4,530 CNY per ton. On August 10, the market underwent a range-bound adjustment, with mainstream quotations ranging from 4,460 to 4,510 CNY per ton.
III. Industry Chain Alerts
The upstream of the PVC industry chain involves commodities such as chlorine, dichloroethane, vinyl chloride, calcium carbide, and ethylene; the downstream covers areas including PVC foam, PVC automotive parts, cables, wires, shoe soles, PVC profiles, toys, PVC pipes, synthetic leather, PVC sheets, and PVC films. Price fluctuations in either the upstream or downstream sectors can have a ripple effect on PVC market conditions.
