September 21 report:
According to the Spotcom AI assistant, as of September 20, 2026, the mainstream quotation range for low-sulfur fuel oil 180CST in the Chinese spot market was 7500-8000 CNY/ton. Regional quotations showed a mixed trend, with prices in Qingdao down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day and prices in Ningbo up by 200 CNY/ton from the previous day. Based on the analysis of the average difference method, the current price of fuel oil 180CST is in a retracement and mostly oscillating pattern, with the annual cycle price at a high level, and the upside potential is relatively limited. The detailed analysis is as follows.
I. Explanation of the Latest Data
The latest available fuel oil spot data in China is up to September 20, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 20, 2026 | Value as of September 19, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 67.5 | 50.0 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 197.5 | 211.25 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 328.75 | 328.12 | + |
III. Signal State Determination
The current combination of changes in the three differences is (+, -, +), corresponding to a retracement signal (bullish).
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend for 180CST fuel oil prices in China is oscillating (with a bullish bias). The rationale for this judgment is that the directions of the three average differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which aligns with the criteria for an oscillating trend. Considering the signal attributes, the oscillating structure has a bullish bias and is currently in a retracement phase.
V. Positional Space Reference
Fuel oil 1-year cycle price is at the 5th level out of 5 levels (high position), with limited upside potential, and supported by crude oil cost on the downside, resulting in similarly limited potential for a price decrease.
VI. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
