August 12 news
The Chinese butadiene market is showing a slight strengthening, with manufacturers pushing prices up slightly. However, downstream demand is limited to rigid demand procurement, and transactions are light, coupled with an increase in arriving shipments, resulting in a lack of sustained positive support on the demand side. The average difference indicator shows a short-term bullish trend, with the 1-year cycle price at a mid-low level and the 60-day cycle at a high level, constraining the upward space. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow range of fluctuation in the short term.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-11) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-10) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 166 | 88 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 112 | 84.33 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -95.67 | -143.67 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
Three deviations have all changed in the same positive direction compared to the previous day, indicating a clear upward trend.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The short-term price trend is clearly upward, but constrained by factors such as rigid downstream demand and sluggish transactions, coupled with an increase in incoming supply, the market is exhibiting a narrow-range, moderately strong consolidation pattern. The extent of price increases is limited, and it’s expected that prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: in the lower to middle range, with relatively limited downside space.
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Median, balancing bullish and bearish forces.
60-day price positioning: High level, with limited upside potential.
Five, Details of Market Dynamics in China
Enterprise auction and sales performance: On August 11, Dongming Petrochemical sold 168 tons externally at a reserve price of 10,380 CNY per ton; Satellite Chemical sold 224 tons externally with a starting bid of 10,400 CNY per ton.
Sinopec's quotation: On August 11, Sinopec executed at 10,500 CNY/ton in East China, North China, and Central China, and at 10,400 CNY/ton in South China, which is the same as the quotation on August 10.
Market Sentiment: On the day, market inquiry activity picked up, and manufacturers’ price-stabilizing efforts led to a slight increase in prices. However, downstream demand remained rigid and focused solely on procurement at existing prices, resulting in sluggish transactions. Coupled with an increase in incoming shipments, demand lacked positive support.
6. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
