August 14 news: Curve comparison chart
Polyethylene prices initially increased and then stabilized at a high level. According to SpotCom data: the average price of LLDPE (7042) on August 7 was 8,158 CNY/ton, and on August 13 it was 8,275 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.43%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on August 7 was 10,233 CNY/ton, and on August 13 it was 10,383 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.47%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on August 7 was 10,450 CNY/ton, and on August 13 it was 10,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.48%.
International crude oil prices have been fluctuating, causing the cost of oil-based polyethylene to rise and fall, providing a bottom support for the market, but with limited upward driving force. The profits from oil-based and coal-based processes continue to diverge, with relatively stable coal-based costs exerting some restraint on spot prices.
Several refining and petrochemical facilities in China have entered a concentrated maintenance period, leading to a decrease in the overall operating rate of polyethylene. This has resulted in a short-term reduction in spot supply in China, alleviating the pressure of previous inventory accumulation and creating a tighter supply situation. As these maintenance facilities gradually plan to resume production, coupled with the arrival of imported supplies from overseas, expectations for a more relaxed supply situation are rising, causing polyethylene prices to plateau after an initial surge.
Currently, it is still in the traditional low season for demand. Only sporadic purchases are made by downstream packaging, injection molding, and pipe industries based on immediate needs, with no large-scale stockpiling. The actual consumption of spot goods is limited. Agricultural film production has not yet entered its peak season, with only sporadic preparations. By the end of August to September, the production of autumn greenhouse films in northern China will gradually start, and expectations for the peak season will gradually rise, driving a marginal improvement in demand.
In the short term, market conditions will likely continue to exhibit high-level fluctuations. The tight supply situation—driven by crude oil costs and the completion of maintenance activities—will continue to provide support for prices, limiting the room for a significant decline. As production gradually resumes and supply increases, downward pressure on prices will intensify. Without substantial upward momentum in crude oil prices, there will be insufficient impetus for further price hikes.
