July 24 News Curve Comparison Chart
According to SpotCom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on July 20 was 8,403 CNY/ton, and the average price on July 24 was 8,440 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on July 20 was 10,483 CNY/ton, and the average price on July 24 remained at 10,483 CNY/ton, with stable quotations. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on July 20 was 10,762 CNY/ton, and the average price on July 24 was 10,737 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.23%.
On the cost side: The geopolitical premium for crude oil persists. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to cause recurring disruptions, keeping Brent crude oil prices volatile at high levels and providing bottom support for polyethylene prices.
Supply side: Some facilities are maintaining maintenance, and the overall increase in supply is limited. Inventory levels at petrochemical plants and port inventories are generally neutral to low. However, the commissioning of new facilities is expected to continue to suppress market upside in the long term.
On the demand side: The traditional off-season has arrived, and agricultural film is entering a lull period. Demand for packaging films and injection-molded products remains subdued. Current demand is weak, while future expectations remain strong. Near-month market conditions are being weighed down by the off-season; in contrast, far-month prices are supported by expectations of inventory buildup for agricultural film. The extent to which these expectations materialize will determine the magnitude of any rebound.
Short-term polyethylene remains in a range-bound fluctuation under cost support, with demand during the off-season limiting upward momentum. The mid-to-late August period, when farmers begin stocking up on agricultural films, will likely mark a turning point in market trends; the intensity of this stocking activity will determine the short-term direction. In the medium to long term, newly added production capacity continues to come online, making it difficult for prices to break higher.
