August 14 news
Recently, the domestic PVC spot market has shown a pattern of range-bound fluctuation, with slight adjustments in quotations in some regions. Upstream facilities have maintained stable operations, while downstream transaction activity has been moderate. Based on the analysis of the average difference indicators and price levels, the current price is in a phase of oscillating correction. The low position attribute over a 1-year cycle may limit the downward space to some extent. Subsequent attention should be paid to the futures trend and changes in supply and demand.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-13) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-12) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -5.1 | 0.9 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 8.3 | 16.1 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 0.85 | -6.95 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current average difference change symbol combination is (－, －, ＋), which belongs to a deep correction (biased bearish, corrective nature) signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of the three mean differences are not entirely consistent; the 5-day and 10-day mean differences have decreased compared to yesterday, while the 20-day mean difference has increased, which aligns with the characteristics of a deep pullback signal within an oscillating range.
IV. Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: Median
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-low level
1 year cycle price position: low, with limited downside space
From a multi-cycle perspective, the 1-year cycle is in a low position, indicating that the room for further price declines is relatively limited; the 60-day cycle is in a middle position, suggesting that there may still be short-term fluctuations and adjustments.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Supplementary Market Dynamics
Spot Market: On August 13, the PVC market in the Zibo region experienced narrow fluctuations. The mainstream pickup prices for the calcium carbide method, Grade 5, ranged from 4,430 to 4,480 CNY per ton. In the Linyi region, prices remained stable, with mainstream quotations ranging from 4,480 to 4,530 CNY per ton.
Upstream facilities: The PVC plants of China Salt Inner Mongolia and Shandong Xinfah are operating normally, running at full capacity or stably, maintaining a stable supply.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
