August 17th News
Today, the average price of toluene in China slightly increased to 6743.33 CNY/ton. The mean difference indicator shows that the current market is in a deep correction and bearish consolidation state. The price is at a high level in the 60-day cycle, at a mid-high level in the 3-month cycle, and at a mid-low level in the 1-year cycle. In the short term, it is expected to consolidate within a narrow range. Continuous attention should be paid to the guidance of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the trend of foreign aromatic hydrocarbons on the market.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-16) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-15) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 9.33 | 19.66 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 102.00 | 119.34 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 47.17 | 11.66 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (－, －, ＋), which belongs to a deep correction (biased towards bearish, corrective nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of the three moving average differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent. Among them, the 5-day and 10-day moving average differences have decreased compared to yesterday, while the 20-day moving average difference has increased, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market. Currently, it is showing a deep correction with a bias towards a bearish oscillating state.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price positioning: Level 5 (high), with limited upside potential;
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Tier 4 (mid-to-high range);
1 year cycle price position: 2nd tier (lower middle).
Overall, the short-term upward price movement is constrained by high levels, but the medium and lower long-term positions also provide some support for the market.
Five, Trend Chart Display
VI. Recent Market Fundamentals
Regional market quotes:
On August 12, the mainstream quotation for toluene in East China was 6,800–6,900 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous day. In South China, Sinopec’s listed price for toluene rose by 100 CNY/ton to 7,050 CNY/ton.
On August 14, the mainstream quotation for toluene in East China was 6,800-6,880 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Sinopec's listed price for toluene in South China remained at 7,050 CNY/ton.
Supply and demand and cost: The previous rise in crude oil prices provided favorable support to the market, but recent fluctuations in crude oil and aromatics in foreign markets have narrowed, leading to weak cost support; downstream buyers are mainly purchasing according to their needs, with a low willingness to chase higher prices, and they are adopting a cautious procurement attitude, with demand being primarily for essential needs.
Supply chain associations: Toluene is upstream related to naphtha and downstream it covers various chemicals such as trimethylbenzene, PX, TDI, etc. The trends in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain will also indirectly affect the toluene market in China.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
