August 19th, news:
Recent toluene market has been supported by the strengthening of crude oil and geopolitical disturbances, coupled with low inventories in China and a strong sentiment among holders to maintain prices. Prices have increased by 100 CNY/ton for two consecutive trading days and are currently entering a high consolidation phase. The average difference indicator shows a warning signal of stagnation, and in the short term, downstream rigid demand procurement is becoming more cautious, compressing the upward momentum. It is necessary to continuously monitor the trends in crude oil and external aromatic markets.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-18) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-17) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 93.00 | 31.00 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 81.00 | 87.00 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 106.67 | 73.83 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, +), corresponding to a stagnation warning (bearish) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions in China
The price trend is characterized by volatility. Reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent with the previous day, which aligns with the criteria for identifying a volatile market. Although the market is supported by crude oil prices, geopolitical factors, and inventory levels, rising prices have squeezed downstream profit margins, prompting rigid demanders to adopt a more cautious procurement approach. As a result, upward momentum has been constrained, and the market has entered a phase of high-level consolidation.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited upside potential;
Price position in the 3-month cycle: High, with limited room for further increase;
1 year cycle price position: at a medium-low level, with relatively controllable downside space.
Overall, the short-term price increase is limited, and it may maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern.
Five, Display of Trend Chart
VI. Supplementary Market Updates
Regional Quotes: As of August 18, 2026, the mainstream quotation for toluene in South China is RMB 6,950–7,200 per ton, while the mainstream quotation in East China is RMB 7,000–7,100 per ton—both up by RMB 100 per ton compared to the previous trading day.
Supporting factors: The strengthening of crude oil prices, coupled with geopolitical disruptions, provides support; spot market liquidity remains tight, and holders are inclined to maintain higher price levels.
Suppression factors: After prices rise, downstream profits are squeezed; rigid demand prompts more cautious procurement practices, thereby limiting further price increases.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
