September 21st, according to news from China,
Crude oil support has weakened, and PTA prices are fluctuating with crude oil. The supply and demand situation is gradually shifting towards increased supply and decreased demand. The traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak season effect remains to be further verified. Recently, the Chinese PTA spot market has shown a slight decline. As of September 21, the benchmark price for PTA spot was 7049 CNY/ton, down 4.25% from September 17.
On the cost side, in the international crude oil market, Saudi Aramco sold approximately 60 million barrels of crude via ship-to-ship transfers to Asia, boosting Gulf-region crude exports back to an average of 1.0–1.5 million barrels per day. This effectively offset the export shortfall caused by damage to the Yanbu port pipeline, ensuring ample crude supply in Asian markets and putting downward pressure on spot prices. On the futures front, as expectations of looser supply intensified, the impact of rising tanker freight rates was largely offset by increased supply, leaving crude oil futures under pressure. As of September 18, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $96.08 per barrel, while the November Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $103.87 per barrel.
On the supply side, multiple PTA units that were previously under maintenance have restarted, raising the industry's operating rate to around 72%. The amount of market-available supply is gradually increasing, and the subsequent supply increment will continue to be released. Although some units have briefly shut down for maintenance, this is unlikely to change the overall trend of resumption of production. By mid-to-late September, PTA is likely to end destocking and gradually enter an inventory accumulation phase, which will limit the upward space for prices.
Demand performance has fallen short of traditional peak season expectations, becoming the main weakness constraining the market. The operating rate of the downstream polyester industry has dropped to around 74%, with increased loss pressures for bottle chips and staple fibers, leading to more production cuts and maintenance. The start-up of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased counter-seasonally, and terminal textile orders have been weak. Downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials is evident, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventories is cautious, resulting in a blocked downward transmission of the supply chain, with negative feedback continuously appearing. The anticipated golden September peak season has not yet fully materialized, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts by downstream enterprises around the National Day holiday, making it difficult for demand to see a significant boost in the short term.
Looking ahead, analysts believe that in the short term, PTA prices will be pressured by the recovery of PTA supply and weak demand, but supported by the cost of crude oil and PX, leading to a mainly range-bound price. The key variables to track are: first, changes in international crude oil and PX prices; second, whether terminal textile orders can substantially recover, and whether polyester production can stop falling and start rising. If peak season demand continues to fall short of expectations, coupled with continued supply increases, there is a risk of PTA prices declining. If terminal orders exceed expectations, then there is potential for prices to rise.
