August 24 news
Today, the spot price of PVC remained at 4,447 CNY/ton. According to the mean deviation analysis, the current mean deviation is showing a weak rebound with a bearish signal. Combined with the fact that prices are at a low level within a one-year cycle, the short-term trend is likely to be volatile and bearish, though the downside room is limited. The market needs to pay close attention to the correlation between futures and spot prices as well as changes in supply and demand across the upstream and downstream sectors.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value | Yesterday's Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -19.40 | -33.00 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 7.90 | 24.20 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 15.60 | 15.65 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, -), which is a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias). Reason: The 5-day average difference narrowed from -33.00 to -19.40 compared to yesterday (the direction of change is +), but the 10-day and 20-day average differences both narrowed compared to yesterday (the direction of change is -). The directions of change for the three averages are not completely consistent, which meets the criteria for oscillation; combined with the (+, -, -) symbol combination, it is determined to be in a weak rebound state with an oscillating and bearish bias.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: Median
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-low level
1 year cycle price position: low
Among them, the 1-year cycle is at a low level, indicating limited room for decline, but the medium and short term are at a middle to low position, and under a volatile and bearish pattern, there is still periodic adjustment pressure.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. Recent Market Dynamics Review
Recently, the spot PVC market has followed the futures trend and shown a slight downward movement: On August 20, dealers in Zibo and Linyi reported quotes that were down by 20-30 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream quotation range for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 was between 4,500 and 4,550 CNY per ton. On August 21, the market in Linyi continued its weak performance, with the mainstream quotation for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 adjusted to between 4,480 and 4,530 CNY per ton. As of August 23, the spot price remained stable at 4,447 CNY per ton, with generally moderate market sentiment and decent trading activity.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
