Multiple Negative Factors Weigh on Butadiene Market, Leading to a Slight Decline

February 9 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 2 to February 9, 2026, the butadiene market in China saw a slight decrease, with prices dropping from 10,400 CNY/ton to 10,033.33 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.53%. During this period, the overall market was weak, with suppliers' quotations becoming more flexible. Downstream pre-holiday stockpiling came to an end, and support from rigid demand weakened, leading to a slight decline in prices due to multiple factors.

Cost Perspective: According to the commodity market analysis system, during this period, international crude oil prices experienced volatile declines. Market expectations for energy demand have softened somewhat, and coupled with heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors ahead of the holiday period, crude oil prices have retreated from their earlier highs, thereby weakening cost support for the butadiene industry chain. Naphtha prices have followed crude oil fluctuations in tandem, with the overall price center shifting slightly downward. As a result, cost support for butadiene has weakened compared to the previous period, creating room for market prices to decline. As of February 6, the settlement price for the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $63.55 per barrel, while the settlement price for the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.05 per barrel.

Supply Side: In this cycle, the main butadiene production facilities in China have mostly maintained normal operations, with overall supply levels remaining stable. The market has an ample circulation of spot goods, and suppliers' quotation attitudes have noticeably softened compared to earlier periods. Some companies, in order to recover funds before the holiday, have moderately reduced prices to facilitate sales.

Sinopec's various sales companies in China are implementing a listed price of 10,300 CNY per ton for butadiene.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 392 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 9,900 CNY/ton.

Satellite Chemical Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a price of 10,000 CNY/ton.

Yantai Wanhua Chemical's Phase II 200,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with no plans for external sales today.

Demand Side: According to the commodity market analysis system, on February 9, the spot market for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the northwest region saw a slight decline. Futures prices for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber remained volatile and consolidated, with traders lowering their quoted prices by 100–150 CNY per ton. Currently, mainstream quotes for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from suppliers such as Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande range from 12,800 to 13,000 CNY per ton.

The butadiene rubber industry in China saw a gradual decline in production this cycle, with pre-holiday inventory buildup nearing its end and a significant reduction in the demand for butadiene, leading to insufficient market support. The capacity utilization rate of high-cis polybutadiene rubber in China decreased slightly, and as the Spring Festival approached, plant load was gradually reduced, resulting in a decrease in weekly output and a slowdown in raw material procurement. Although the decline in butadiene prices to some extent alleviated the cost pressure on downstream industries, most downstream companies were mainly focused on completing their pre-holiday orders, showing low procurement willingness. The market trading atmosphere was light, and there was insufficient support for butadiene prices.

Market Outlook: Overall, during this period, China’s butadiene market has experienced a slight price correction under the combined influence of three key factors: weakening cost support, ample supply, and softening demand. On the cost side, volatile and declining crude oil prices have weakened the bottom support. On the supply side, production facilities are operating steadily, and spot supplies remain abundant. On the demand side, downstream businesses are wrapping up pre-holiday stockpiling, and rigid demand is gradually waning. The loose supply-demand balance is driving the market to consolidate at a relatively weak level. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises will progressively shut down for holidays, further lightening market trading activity. Suppliers are likely to continue their strategy of offering discounts to boost sales volume, leaving room for a modest further price correction. However, considering that major production units have no scheduled major maintenance and port inventories remain low, there is limited room for a significant price decline. We expect China’s butadiene market to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the near term, with particular attention needed on trends in crude oil prices and expectations for resumption of operations after the holiday.