August 27 news
As of August 26, 2026, the latest average difference signal for polybutadiene rubber in China shows a deep correction (bearish) status. The short-term price is at a high level with limited upside potential. Affected by multiple factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, reduced load on facilities, and differentiated downstream demand, the short-term market trend will mainly be characterized by fluctuation, with increased pressure for a bearish correction.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Mean Difference Indicators | Value as of August 26, 2026 | Value as of August 25, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Difference (D5) | -314.00 | +56.00 | - |
| 10-day Mean Difference (D10) | +74.00 | +219.00 | - |
| 20-day Mean Difference (D20) | +567.00 | +548.50 | + |
Note: The latest available data is up to August 26, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Signal Status Determination
The current three mean difference change direction combinations are (－, －, ＋), which belong to a deep correction (bearish, corrective nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating (with a short-term bearish bias). The reason is that the changes in the three differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent. The 5-day difference and the 10-day difference are both declining, while the 20-day difference is slightly increasing, which is characteristic of a deep correction in an oscillating market.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Over the past 60 days, prices over a 3-month period have reached the 5th tier (high level), leaving limited room for short-term upward movement.
1-year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (median), with no obvious absolute top pressure in the medium to long term, and there is still a reasonable space for fluctuation.
V. 1-Year Trend Chart
Six, Dynamics of the Industrial Fundamentals in China
Spot market conditions: On August 26, the butadiene rubber market in the northwest region of China saw a significant decline. Due to rumors of US-Iran talks, crude oil prices fell from their highs, leading merchants to lower their quotes. The main quotations for butadiene rubber from Sichuan and Dushanzi were 14,150~14,200 CNY/ton. Since late August, the markets in East China and Southwest China, which had previously maintained high levels, had main quotation ranges of 14,700~15,000 CNY/ton.
Supply side: Zhenhua New Materials and Qixiang Tengda, with their 100,000 tons/year and 90,000 tons/year high-cis polybutadiene rubber plants respectively, have been gradually reducing production since August 25, leading to an expected contraction in supply.
On the demand side: In July 2026, global light-duty vehicle sales declined by 3.3% year-on-year, while China's output of rubber tire casings increased by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating a diverging demand pattern. In July, imports of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell by 11.48% month-on-month, and exports fell by 16.06% month-on-month.
Cost side: The upstream raw material butadiene is currently at highs for both the 60-day and 3-month periods, continuing to provide cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
