August 31 news
The commodity market analysis system shows that in August, polyester filament exhibited a trend of low volatility in the first half of the month and cost-driven increases in the middle of the month. The average price of mainstream POY150D/48F in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at the beginning of the month was 8,525 CNY per ton, with prices rising by the end of the month, showing a slight increase of 2.84% within the month. This round of price increases was mainly driven by the rise in upstream raw material costs, but the release of downstream textile terminal orders was limited, indicating a cost-driven market trend.
In early August, China was in the high-temperature textile off-season, with autumn and winter fabric orders not yet concentrated. Downstream weaving mills were very cautious in their purchases, only maintaining necessary restocking, resulting in a flat market trading atmosphere. At the beginning of the month, PTA price fluctuations were mild, and the processing profit for filament yarn was slim, leaving manufacturers with little motivation to adjust prices, which remained at low levels. By mid-August, international crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, driving PTA and ethylene glycol prices up simultaneously, significantly increasing production costs. Coupled with the concentration of PTA facility maintenance, which tightened raw material supplies, polyester factories raised their quotes, pushing up the price of filament yarn. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and there was no significant increase in market sales.
In September, polyester filament enters a stage of multiple and short-term competition, with a high probability of fluctuating at high levels, and limited potential for a unilateral sharp increase. On the supply side, filament companies as a whole maintain a controlled production pace, but with the recovery of processing profits, some factories are expected to resume or increase production, which will limit the upward space for prices.
On the cost side, as PTA maintenance facilities are gradually restarted, the supply of raw materials becomes marginally more relaxed, and the cost support has weakened somewhat; the port inventory of ethylene glycol is low, still providing a certain level of support, with market trends following the fluctuations in crude oil.
Demand is entering the traditional "Golden September" peak season, but the recovery of terminal orders remains uncertain. The inventory of downstream weaving grey cloth is at a low level, but high-priced raw materials are squeezing weaving profits, and the willingness of downstream players to chase prices and replenish stocks is weak. If peak season orders fall short of expectations, filament prices may face downward pressure. Subsequent focus will be on tracking fluctuations in raw material prices, the operating rates of filament producers, and the actual landing of terminal orders in China.
