September 2nd, news:
[Key Insight] Currently, methanol prices are in a volatile pattern characterized by a strong rebound (leaning toward bullish). In the short term, they are supported by plant maintenance both domestically and internationally, rising prices on overseas markets, and positive auction results, keeping prices relatively strong. However, given that prices are currently in the upper range of multiple cycles, there is limited room for further upward movement in the near term.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of Sep 1, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of Aug 31, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 227.66 | 154.17 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 48.42 | -2.08 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 84.88 | 85.79 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
Currently, the combination of changes in the three central differences is (+, +, -), which constitutes a strong rebound signal (leaning bullish, with rebound characteristics).
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The short-term trend for methanol prices is oscillating with a bullish bias. The rationale is as follows: the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market according to the moving average difference method. This corresponds to a strong rebound (bullish), indicating a higher probability of stronger price performance in the short term.
IV. Spatial Reference
Methanol's 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high, corresponding to the top 20% price range within the cycle), while the 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are both in the 4th tier (upper-middle). The overall upside potential is limited.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Fundamental Analysis Reference
Supply-side support: The 900,000 tons/year methanol plant of Inner Mongolia Rongxin Phase I is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on September 5 for 25 days. The two Iranian plants, Sabalan and Kimiya, with a combined capacity of 3,300,000 tons/year, remain shut down. Petronas' Plant 2 is under maintenance, and Plant 3 is operating at less than full capacity. The expectation of reduced supply both in China and overseas is providing support to prices.
Market transactions improved: On September 1, the starting bid for methanol from Inner Mongolia Rongxin was 2,810 CNY/ton, and it was fully sold at 2,890 CNY/ton, 80 CNY/ton higher than the starting bid. On August 31, Yizhou Technology raised the methanol price by 50 CNY/ton, and auctions in multiple regions went smoothly.
Market Boost from Overseas Markets: On August 31, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 534.5–535.5 per ton, up USD 8 per ton on a daily basis. The rise in import costs has boosted sentiment in China’s spot market.
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
