September 3 news
This analysis is based on the method of mean difference analysis, combined with the latest toluene spot price, mean difference indicators, and cyclical price position data as of September 2, 2026. The current toluene price is in a clear upward trend, with the 60-day and 3-month cycles in a high range, and the 1-year cycle in a mid-range, for reference by market participants in China.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Indicator | Value on September 2 (CNY/ton) | Value on September 1 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 394.66 | 166.66 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 47.00 | -4.33 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 195.50 | 184.00 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current situation is a clear signal of an increase in China.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current toluene price trend is clearly upward. Reasons: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences from the previous day are completely consistent, and all three types of average differences are positive, meeting the clear upward judgment rule of the average difference method; at the fundamental level, crude oil has been continuously strengthening recently, and the supply of toluene spot in China is tight. Holders have a strong mentality of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, which also supports the continuous upward movement of prices.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Toluene's 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high, within the highest 20% range of the cycle), and the 3-month cycle is also in the 5th tier (high), indicating limited short-term upside. The 1-year cycle is in the 3rd tier (middle, within the 40%-60% range), suggesting there is still some room for movement in the medium to long term.
Five, Display of Trend Chart
VI. Fundamentals & Industry Chain Reference
Fundamentals: On September 2, 2026, the mainstream quotation range for toluene in the Shandong region of China was 7830-7850 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. The current market is supported by strong crude oil prices and tight spot supply, while it is being pressured by weak downstream demand. In the short term, attention needs to be paid to the follow-up situation on the demand side.
Industrial Chain: The upstream core commodity is naphtha; the downstream segment covers a variety of chemical products including trimethylbenzene, trimethylchlorosilane, TDI, PX, isomeric xylene, and benzoic acid.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
