September 9th, news
This diesel price analysis is based on the average difference method and the latest market data as of September 8, 2026. The current average difference signal for diesel shows a stagnation warning (bearish), with prices at a high level within the past year, indicating limited room for further increases. The overall trend is one of fluctuation, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback from these high levels.
I. Table of Changes in Diesel Fuel Price Differences
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026.09.08) | Yesterday's Value (2026.09.07) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 25.00 | 16.72 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 108.99 | 164.83 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 262.50 | 250.08 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of average difference change signs is (+, -, +), which belongs to a stagflation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, and does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Diesel prices in China for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods are all in the 5th tier (high position), with limited room for further increases, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback from these high levels.
V. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VI. Fundamental Reference
Cost side: On September 7, the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $97.31 per barrel, up 1.1%. The volatile upward trend in international crude oil prices provides strong support for diesel costs.
On the overseas markets: U.S. retail diesel prices have recently hit a new all-time high, with price increases exceeding 58% compared to the same period last year. The high prices in overseas markets are having a certain positive impact on market sentiment in China.
China supply and demand: Recently, the quotations for diesel from independent refineries in China have shown mixed trends. On September 8, the diesel quotation range in the northeast region was 8600-8700 CNY/ton, and in the northwest region, it was 8400-8500 CNY/ton. The strength of demand support needs further verification.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
