September 29 report:
According to the commodity market analysis system, in September 2026, the butadiene market in China first rose and then fell, with a wide fluctuation. The price range within the month was 11.25%. The market price fluctuated from 13,333.33 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 13,466.67 CNY/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1%.
In September 2026, the butadiene market in China showed an overall trend of first declining and then rising, with a general upward fluctuation, and the price level rose as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the market continued the weak trend at the end of the previous month, with prices briefly running at a low level. As multiple positive factors were released in the middle and late part of the month, the market rebounded from the bottom, and the price increase continued to expand. The core drivers of this month's market fluctuations originated from the phased adjustment of the supply and demand pattern, combined with fluctuations in raw material costs, the concentrated implementation of plant maintenance, and the seasonal recovery of downstream demand. Meanwhile, the change in market sentiment and trading mentality further amplified the market volatility, allowing the overall market to break free from the previously persistently weak operational pattern.
Cost Dynamics: In September, the upstream feedstock market for butadiene followed a weak‑then‑strong trend, providing phased support to the butadiene market and serving as a key factor behind price fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil and naphtha prices edged lower, weakening overall cost support for chemical feedstocks. This squeezed profit margins in the butadiene industry and dampened bullish sentiment, contributing significantly to the market’s early‑month low‑price range. As the month progressed, international crude oil futures rallied amid volatile trading, while naphtha prices on the global market also rebounded. The upward shift in upstream feedstock costs established a solid cost floor for the butadiene market, bolstering traders’ and producers’ willingness to hold firm on prices and driving a subsequent price recovery. By month’s end, feedstock prices stabilized, with no pronounced increases or decreases on the cost side, leading the market into a period of high‑level consolidation and moderating the cost‑driven impetus. Overall, this month’s cost trends closely mirrored butadiene price movements, with temporary cost swings dictating the short‑term pace of market volatility. As of September 28, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $92.60 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $97.83 per barrel.
Supply side:
In September, the butadiene market supply showed a phased characteristic of being loose at the beginning of the month, tightening in the middle, and recovering at the end, which was the core factor driving the price fluctuations for the entire month. At the beginning of the month, butadiene production facilities in China operated stably overall, with high industry operating rates, ample spot supply in the market, and significant inventory pressure on traders, leading to a situation of oversupply. To stimulate transactions, companies generally offered discounts, resulting in weak and volatile prices at the beginning of the month. In the middle of the month, the market supply situation saw a significant change, as multiple key production and cracking units in China entered maintenance and load reduction periods, and some regional facilities were temporarily shut down for maintenance. This led to a substantial decline in the overall industry operating rate, a continuous tightening of available spot resources, and a prominent shortage of supply, providing strong support and driving prices to rise rapidly. By the end of the month, previously shut-down facilities gradually resumed operations, leading to a slight recovery in the industry's operating rate and an increase in market supply. The tight supply situation eased, and the supply-side support weakened, causing the market's upward momentum to slow down and enter a phase of high-level bargaining.
Sinopec's various sales companies have set the butadiene price at 13,500 CNY/ton as of September 28, an increase of 1,000 CNY/ton from August 30.
Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 280 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 13,500 CNY per ton.
Demand side:
In September, downstream demand exhibited a seasonal rebound and phased release, providing core support for the upward trend in prices. At the beginning of the month, major downstream sectors—synthetic rubber, ABS, and rubber‑plastic industries—maintained steady operating rates, while end‑use tire and plastic product manufacturers primarily focused on restocking to meet immediate needs; large‑scale inventory‑building demand had yet to kick in, leaving market demand sluggish and unable to drive price increases. Coupled with resistance to high price levels, overall demand remained subdued. Midway through the month, as the traditional peak season began to take effect, downstream operations gradually picked up, and pre‑holiday stocking demand among end‑users was concentratedly released. This boosted rigid‑demand procurement activity, steadily absorbing the relatively tight supply in the market and further exacerbating the supply‑demand mismatch, thereby strongly propelling a rebound in butadiene prices. By month’s end, the pace of downstream stockpiling slowed. Following the earlier wave of concentrated restocking, inventories at downstream firms were replenished, leading to a decline in their willingness to accept higher‑priced butadiene. Purchasing became more cautious, with most operators adopting a “just‑in‑time” approach. As a result, the trading rhythm eased, demand‑side support weakened marginally, and market conditions stabilized, settling into a consolidation phase.
Future Market Forecast:
Considering overall costs, supply‑demand dynamics, and market sentiment, China’s butadiene market is likely to remain in a high‑range trading pattern—stable with a slight bullish bias—in the short term, with limited momentum for either sharp gains or losses. On the supply side, the resumption of production at previously shut‑down units has been relatively modest, leaving spot supplies generally tight and providing support to prices. Meanwhile, crude oil and naphtha prices have remained broadly stable, with no significant downside risk, continuing to underpin market conditions. From the demand perspective, pre‑holiday restocking by downstream users still has some room to continue, and underlying rigid demand has yet to fully abate, so near‑term demand remains supported. However, potential risks should not be overlooked: as more facilities come back online, supply will gradually increase, while downstream restocking may taper off and the pace of rigid demand pick up, potentially shifting the supply‑demand balance once again and creating the possibility of a temporary correction or consolidation. Overall, future market developments will hinge on closely monitoring upstream feedstock price volatility, changes in operating rates at Chinese plants, and the evolution of downstream terminal demand.
