August 11th, news:
Today, the spot price of gasoline showed a strong rebound. The spread indicator shows a strong rebound signal that is bullish. Considering the price level, there is still some room for increase over a 1-year cycle as it is currently at the midpoint, but caution is needed for the 60-day and 3-month cycles as they are at high levels, posing a risk of a pullback. The rise in international crude oil prices and the increase in local refinery prices in China provide support for the market trend.
I. Analysis of the Mean Difference Indicator
Difference Table of Means
Difference Type Today's Value (2026-08-10) Yesterday's Value (2026-08-09) Direction of Change
5-day average difference (D5) 17.30 -6.57 +
10-day average difference (D10) -9.98 -15.32 +
20-day average difference (D20) 45.31 54.02 -
Signal Status Judgment
The combination of mean difference change directions is (+, +, -), indicating a strong rebound (bullish bias, rebound nature).
Trend Direction Conclusion
Volatility (strong rebound with a bullish bias). Reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent. Specifically, the 5-day moving average has turned from negative to positive, and the 10-day moving average’s negative value has narrowed, indicating strong short-term upward momentum. However, the 20-day moving average has narrowed as well, signaling a weakening of medium- to long-term support. Overall, the market is in a strong rebound phase within a volatile trading range.
II. Price, Location, and Spatial Reference
Gasoline prices are at a median level over a 1-year period, with some room for increase; however, they are at a high level over 60-day and 3-month periods, limiting the potential for further increases and necessitating caution against the risk of a pullback from these high levels.
III. Market Trend Chart
4. Industrial Chain and Market Dynamics
International Crude Oil: On August 10, the international crude oil market closed with prices higher. On August 7, the settlement price for the September contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $78.18 per barrel, representing a price increase of 1.1%; the settlement price for the October contract of Brent crude oil futures was $83.55 per barrel, reflecting a price increase of 1.3%.
Local Refinery Prices: On August 10, refined oil prices at local refineries in Northeast China rose. The overall price range for 92# gasoline was between 8,400 and 8,500 CNY per ton, while the price range for 95# gasoline was between 8,500 and 8,600 CNY per ton. In Northwest China, refined oil prices at local refineries also increased: the overall price range for 92# gasoline was 8,700 to 8,800 CNY per ton, and the price range for 95# gasoline was between 8,800 and 8,900 CNY per ton.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
