September 10th, news:
Price Trend
According to SpotCom data, in early September, the Chinese PC market showed an upward trend, with spot prices for various grades continuing to rise. As of September 9, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 14,883.33 CNY per ton, representing a 1.25% increase from the beginning of the month.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: Since early September, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises have not been high. The overall industry load rate is around 75%. The production loss gap is stable, with the current weekly output slightly over 60,000 tons, and the shipping fluency of the polymerization plants is acceptable. Additionally, the partial units of Zhejiang Petrochemical that are expected to resume operations recently will have a limited impact on the overall supply. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PC.
Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the Chinese bisphenol A market experienced a significant price increase starting in September. International crude oil prices have risen due to ongoing volatility in the Middle East situation, driving up the prices of acetone and phenol accordingly. Meanwhile, supply of genuine branded products in the market has become increasingly tight, with factories and inventory-holding traders holding low stock levels. Market sentiment toward bisphenol A remains positive, and spot prices are predominantly trending upward at high levels. The availability of lower-priced downstream supplies has dwindled, causing the focus of actual transaction prices to shift higher. Overall, this provides strong support for polycarbonate (PC) costs.
Demand Side: Sales at downstream PC factories have yet to show significant signs of a peak season. End-user companies are operating at low capacity utilization levels, and demand for products such as board casings remains moderate. However, given that the mid-term supply-demand balance for PCs is tight, traders are attempting to quote higher prices, while end-users remain cautious. The liquidity of supply has slowed down. The market is characterized by a strong wait-and-see attitude toward high-priced supplies, with buyers adopting a cautious approach to inventory building. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains weak.
Future Market Forecast
In early September, the PC market in China continued to rise. After the upstream bisphenol A prices increased and then stabilized, the cost support for PC significantly increased. The operating rates of PC polymerization plants in China are low, and future supply changes are expected to be limited. Trading in the market is mainly driven by weak essential demand, with cautious inventory stocking. Currently, there is a tight balance between supply and demand for PC, and there is still an expectation of rising raw material prices in the long term. Analysts believe that PC prices may remain high in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor crude oil and demand dynamics.
