September 17th, according to reports
Currently, the cost of polybutadiene rubber is strongly supported by high operating prices of crude oil and upstream butadiene and n-hexane. The downstream tire industry in China has already started a concentrated price increase, and there is an expectation for further price adjustments in October. However, the spot market shows a clear resistance to high-priced supplies. Current signals indicate that polybutadiene rubber is in a weak rebound and a bearish fluctuation pattern, with prices at a high level within the past year. The short-term upward space is limited, and the risk of a price correction needs to be guarded against.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 16, 2026 | Value as of September 15, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Difference (D5) | -284 | -708 | + |
| 10-day Mean Difference (D10) | -99 | 37 | - |
| 20-day Mean Difference (D20) | 423 | 461.5 | - |
Note: The latest available data currently dates as of September 16, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data for the most up-to-date information.
II. Signal Status Determination
The current three difference change combinations are (+, -, -), which match the characteristics of the "Weak Rebound (Bearish)" signal in the rules.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, and does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus it is operating within an oscillating range.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Butadiene rubber 60-day cycle price is in the 4th tier (mid-high), 3-month cycle price is in the 5th tier (high), and 1-year cycle price is in the 4th tier (mid-high). The overall price is in a relatively high range, with limited short-term upside potential and a possibility of a pullback.
Five, Trend Chart Display
Six, Fundamental References
Cost side: Prices of upstream butadiene and n-hexane are both at their highest levels in nearly three months, while crude oil remains stable at high levels, providing strong cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.
Supply and Demand: On September 15, tire giants such as Zhongce and Sailun in China announced price increases for all categories of tires, with several companies indicating that prices may be adjusted again in October. However, the current spot market shows a clear resistance from downstream buyers to high-priced butadiene rubber. On September 16, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber from Daqing, Sichuan, and Dushanzi in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were reported at 15,500~15,800 CNY/ton, with spot offers consolidating within this range.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
