October SBR Market Trends Weaken and Decline

October 30 report

In October, the butadiene rubber market in China showed a weak downward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of October 30, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 11,190 CNY per ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 11,670 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month.

Since October, the production of butadiene in China has increased as some facilities have restarted. Additionally, with international crude oil prices fluctuating downward, the price of butadiene, a raw material, has significantly decreased, leading to a substantial reduction in the cost of polybutadiene rubber. Furthermore, in October, the operating rates of polybutadiene rubber first increased and then decreased, gradually easing supply-side pressure. Downstream tire production has remained stable with a slight increase, mainly supporting the demand for polybutadiene rubber. Under the combined influence of these factors, the price of polybutadiene rubber in October has weakened. As of October 30, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangzi polybutadiene rubber in the East China region were reported at 11,050 to 11,300 CNY per ton.

In October, the price of butadiene in China weakened significantly, dragging down the market for polybutadiene rubber. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of October 30, the price of butadiene was 7,516 CNY/ton, a decrease of 15.42% from 8,886 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month.

In mid to late October, Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical in China successively shut down their butadiene facilities for maintenance, leading to a significant decrease in the production of butadiene rubber. Additionally, Maoming Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials have planned maintenance for their butadiene facilities in November.

Demand side: In October, the operating rate of semi-steel tire production slightly increased, providing support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of October 24, the operating rate of semi-steel tire production in Chinese tire companies was around 74%; in Shandong province, the operating rate of all-steel tire production in tire companies slightly increased to about 66%.

Market Forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts believe that the abundant supply of butadiene—coupled with generally weak market conditions—will likely keep prices under pressure. Meanwhile, downstream tire production has seen slight fluctuations, and several cis-1,4-polybutadiene units are still scheduled for maintenance shutdowns in November. Overall, it is expected that cis-butadiene rubber prices will remain volatile and weak in the near term.